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Last week, the George Washington University Center for Regulatory Studies convened a Conference (GW Conference) on the Status of Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) Negotiations between the European Union (EU) and the United States (U.S.), which were launched in 2013 and will continue for an indefinite period of time. In launching TTIP, the Obama Administration claimed that this pact would raise economic welfare in the U.S. and the EU through stimulating investment and lowering non-tariff barriers between the two jurisdictions, by, among other measures, “significantly cut[ting] the cost of differences in [European Union and United States] regulation and standards by promoting greater compatibility, transparency, and cooperation.

Whether TTIP, if enacted, would actually raise economic welfare in the United States is an open question, however. As a recent Heritage Foundation analysis of TTIP explained, a TTIP focus on “harmonizing” regulations could actually lower economic freedom (and welfare) by “regulating upward” through acceptance of the more intrusive approach, and by precluding future competition among alternative regulatory models that could lead to welfare-enhancing regulatory improvements. Thus, the Heritage study recommended that “[a]ny [TTIP] agreement should be based on mutual recognition, not harmonization, of regulations.”

Unfortunately, discussion at the GW Conference indicated that the welfare-superior mutual recognition approach has been rejected by negotiators – at least as of now. In response to a question I posed on the benefits of mutual recognition, an EU official responded that such an “academic” approach is not “realistic,” while a senior U.S. TTIP negotiator indicated that mutual recognition could prove difficult where regulatory approaches differ. I read those diplomatically couched responses as signaling that both sides opposed the mutual recognition approach. This is a real problem. As part of TTIP, U.S. and EU sector-specific regulators are actively engaged in discussing regulatory particulars. There is the distinct possibility that the regulators may agree on measures that raise regulatory burdens for the sectors covered – particularly given the oft-repeated motto at the GW Conference that TTIP must not reduce existing levels of “protection” for health, safety, and the environment. (Those blandishments eschew any cost-benefit calculus to justify existing protection levels.) This conclusion is further supported by public choice theory, which suggests that regulators may be expected to focus on expanding the size and scope of their regulatory domains, not on contracting them. To make things worse, TTIP raises the possibility that the highly successful U.S. tradition of reliance on private sector-led voluntary consensus standards, as opposed to the EU’s preference for heavy government involvement in standard-setting policies, may be undermined. Any move toward greater direct government influence on U.S. standard setting as part of a TTIP bargain would further undermine the vibrancy, competition, and innovation that have led to the great international success of U.S.-developed technical standards.

As a practical matter, however, is there time for a change in direction in TTIP negotiations regarding regulation and standards? Yes, there is. The TTIP negotiators face no true deadline. Moreover, as a matter of political reality, the eventual U.S. statutory adoption of TTIP measures may require the passage by Congress of “fast-track” trade promotion authority (TPA), which provides for congressional up-or-down votes (without possibility of amendment) on legislation embodying trade deals that have been negotiated by the Executive Branch. Given the political sensitivity of trade deals, they cannot easily be renegotiated if they are altered by congressional amendments. (Indeed, in recent decades all major trade agreements requiring implementing legislation have proceeded under TPA.)

If the Obama Administration decides that it wants to advance TTIP, it must rely on a Republican-controlled Congress to obtain TPA. Before it grants such authority, Congress should conduct hearings and demand that Administration officials testify about key aspects of the Administration’s TTIP negotiating philosophy, and, in particular, on how U.S. TTIP negotiators are approaching regulatory differences between the U.S. and the EU. Congress should make it a prerequisite to the grant of TPA that the final TTIP agreement embody welfare-enhancing mutual recognition of regulations and standards, rather than welfare-reducing harmonization. It should vote down any TTIP negotiated deal that fails to satisfy this requirement.

The Legatum Institute (Legatum) is “an international think tank based in London and a registered UK charity [that] . . . focuses on understanding, measuring, and explaining the journey from poverty to prosperity for individuals, communities, and nations.”  Legatum’s annual “Legatum Prosperity Index . . . measure[s] and track[s] the performance of 149 countries of the world across multiple categories including health, education, the economy, social capital, and more.”

Among other major Legatum initiatives is a “Special Trade Commission” (STC) created in the wake of the United Kingdom’s (UK) vote to leave the European Union (Brexit).  According to Legatum, “the STC aims to present a roadmap for the many trade negotiations which the UK will need to undertake now.  It seeks to re-focus the public discussion on Brexit to a positive conversation on opportunities, rather than challenges, while presenting empirical evidence of the dangers of not following an expansive trade negotiating path.”  STC Commissioners (I am one of them) include former international trade negotiators and academic experts from Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Switzerland, Canada, Mexico, the United Kingdom and the United States (see here).  The Commissioners serve in their private capacities, representing their personal viewpoints.  Since last summer, the STC has released (and will continue to release) a variety of papers on the specific legal and economic implications of Brexit negotiations, available on Legatum’s website (see here, here, here, here, and here).

From February 6-8 I participated in the inaugural STC Conference in London, summarized by Legatum as follows:

During the Conference the[] [STC Commissioners] began to outline a vision for Britain’s exit from the European Union and the many trade negotiations that the UK will need to undertake. They discussed the state of transatlantic trade, the likely impact of the Trump administration on those ties as well as the NAFTA [North American Free Trade Agreement among the United States, Canada, and Mexico) renegotiation, the prospects for TTIP [Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership negotiations between the United States and the European Union, no longer actively being pursued] and the resurrection of TPP [Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations between the United States and certain Pacific Rim nations, U.S. participation withdrawn by President Trump] the future of the WTO [World Trade Organization] and the opportunities for Britain to pursue unilateral, plurilateral and multilateral liberalisation. A future Prosperity Zone between like-minded countries was repeatedly highlighted as a key opportunity for post-Brexit Britain to engage in a high-standards, growth-creating trade agreement.

The Commissioners spoke publicly to a joint meeting attended by the House of Commons and the House of Lords as well as the International Trade Committee in the House of Commons and at a public event hosted at the Legatum Institute where they shared their expertise and recommendations for the UK’s exit strategy.

The broad theme of the STC Commissioners’ presentations was that the Brexit process, if handled appropriately, can set the stage for greater economic liberalization, international trade expansion, and heightened economic growth and prosperity, in the United Kingdom and elsewhere.  In particular, the STC recommended that the UK Government pursue four different paths simultaneously over the next several years, in connection with its withdrawal from the European Union:

  1. Work to further lower UK trade barriers beyond the levels set by the UK’s current World Trade Organization (WTO) commitments, by pledging to apply a tariff for some products below its WTO “bound” tariff rate commitments to levels well below the “Common External Tariff” rates the UK currently applies to non-EU imports as an EU member; and by unilaterally liberalizing other aspects of its trade policy, in areas such as government procurement, for example.
  2. Propose plurilateral free trade agreements between the UK and a few like-minded nations that have among the world’s most free and open economies, such as Australia, New Zealand, and Singapore; and work to further liberalize global technical standards through active participation in such organizations as the Basel Convention (cross-boundary hazardous waste disposal) and IOSCO (international securities regulation).
  3. Propose bilateral free trade agreements between the UK and the United States, Switzerland, and perhaps other countries, designed to expand commerce with key UK trading partners, as well as securing a comprehensive free trade agreement with the EU.
  4. Unilaterally reduce UK regulatory burdens without regard to trade negotiations as part of a domestic “competitiveness agenda,” involving procompetitive regulatory reform and the elimination of tariff to the greatest extent feasible; a UK Government productivity commission employing cost-benefit analysis could be established to carry out this program (beginning in the late 1980s, the Australian Government reduced its regulatory burdens and spurred economic growth, with the assistance of a national productivity commission).

These “four pillars” of trade-liberalizing reform are complementary and self-reinforcing.  The reduction of UK trade barriers should encourage other countries to liberalize and consider joining plurilateral free trade agreements already negotiated with the UK, or perhaps consider exploring their own bilateral trade arrangements with the UK.  Furthermore, individual nations’ incentives to gain greater access to the UK market through trade negotiations should be further enhanced by the unilateral reduction of UK regulatory constraints.

As trade barriers drop, UK consumers (including poorer consumers) should perceive a direct benefit from economic liberalization, providing political support for continued liberalization.  And the economic growth and innovation spurred by this virtuous cycle should encourage the European Union and its member states to “join the club” by paring back common external tariffs and by loosening regulatory impediments to international competition, such as restrictive standards and licensing schemes.  In short, the four paths provide the outlines for a “win-win” strategy that would be beneficial to the UK and its trading partners, both within and outside of the EU.

Admittedly, the STC’s proposals may have to overcome opposition from well-organized interest groups who would be harmed by liberalization, and may be viewed with some skepticism by some risk averse government officials and politicians.  The task of the STC will be to continue to work with the UK Government and outside stakeholders to convince them that Brexit strategies centered on bilateral and plurilateral trade liberalization, in tandem with regulatory relief, provide a way forward that will prove mutually beneficial to producers and consumers in the UK – and in other nations as well.

Stay tuned.

 

 

 

A key issue raised by the United Kingdom’s (UK) withdrawal from the European Union (EU) – popularly referred to as Brexit – is its implications for competition and economic welfare.  The competition issue is rather complex.  Various potentially significant UK competition policy reforms flowing from Brexit that immediately suggest themselves are briefly summarized below.  (These are merely examples – further evaluation may point to additional significant competition policy changes that Brexit is likely to inspire.)

First, UK competition policy will no longer be subject to European Commission (EC) competition law strictures, but will be guided instead solely by UK institutions, led by the UK Competition and Markets Authority (CMA).  The CMA is a free market-oriented, well-run agency that incorporates careful economic analysis into its enforcement investigations and industry studies.  It is widely deemed to be one of the world’s best competition and consumer protection enforcers, and has first-rate leadership.  (Former U.S. Federal Trade Commission Chairman William Kovacic, a very sound antitrust scholar, professor, and head of George Washington University Law School’s Competition Law Center, serves as one of the CMA’s “Non-Executive Directors,” who set the CMA’s policies.)  Post-Brexit, the CMA will no longer have to conform its policies to the approaches adopted by the EC’s Directorate General for Competition (DG Comp) and determinations by European courts.   Despite its recent increased reliance on an “economic effects-based” analytical approach, DG-Comp still suffers from excessive formalism and an over-reliance on pure theories of harm, rather than hard empiricism.  Moreover, EU courts still tend to be overly formalistic and deferential to EC administrative determinations.  In short, CMA decision-making in the competition and consumer protection spheres, free from constraining EU influences, should (at least marginally) prove to be more welfare-enhancing within the UK post-Brexit.  (For a more detailed discussion of Brexit’s implication for EU and UK competition law, see here.)  There is a countervailing risk that Brexit might marginally worsen EU competition policy by eliminating UK pro-free market influence on EU policies, but the likelihood and scope of such a marginal effect is not readily measurable.

Second, Brexit will allow the UK to escape participation in the protectionist, wasteful, output-limiting European agricultural cartel knows as the “Common Agricultural Policy,” or CAP, which involves inefficient subsidies whose costs are borne by consumers.  This would be a clearly procompetitive and welfare-enhancing result, to the extent that it undermined the CAP.  In the near term, however, its net effects on CAP financing and on the welfare of UK farmers appear to be relatively small.

Third, the UK may be able to avoid the restrictive EU Common Fisheries Policy and exercise greater control over its coastal fisheries.  In so doing, the UK could choose to authorize the creation of a market-based tradable fisheries permit system that would enhance consumer and producer welfare and increase competition.

Fourth, Brexit will free the UK economy from one-size-fits-all supervisory regulatory frameworks in such areas as the environment, broadband policy (“digital Europe”), labor, food and consumer products, among others.  This regulatory freedom, properly handled, could prove a major force for economic flexibility, reductions in regulatory burdens, and enhanced efficiency.

Fifth, Brexit will enable the UK to enter into true free trade pacts with the United States and other nations that avoid the counterproductive bells and whistles of EU industrial policy.  For example, a “zero tariffs” agreement with the United States that featured reciprocal mutual recognition of health, safety, and other regulatory standards would avoid heavy-handed regulatory harmonization features of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Policy agreement being negotiated between the EU and the United States.  (As I explained in a previous Truth on the Market post, “a TTIP focus on ‘harmonizing’ regulations could actually lower economic freedom (and welfare) by ‘regulating upward’ through acceptance of [a] more intrusive approach, and by precluding future competition among alternative regulatory models that could lead to welfare-enhancing regulatory improvements.”)

In sum, while Brexit’s implications for other economic factors, such as macroeconomic stability, remain to be seen, Brexit will likely prove to have an economic welfare-enhancing influence on key aspects of competition policy.

P.S.  Notably, a recent excellent study by Iain Murray and Rory Broomfield of Brexit’s implications for various UK industry sectors (commissioned by the London-based Institute of Economic Affairs) concluded “that in almost every area we have examined the benefit: cost trade-off [of Brexit] is positive. . . .  Overall, the UK will benefit substantially from a reduction in regulation, a better fisheries management system, a market-based immigration system, a free market in agriculture, a globally-focused free trade policy, control over extradition, and a shale gas-based energy policy.”