Thomson-Reuters has listed its “Citation Laureates,” its predictions for particular scholars winning a Nobel prize sometime in the future (not necessarily this year). Of particular interest to readers of this blog is that George Mason Law Professor Emeritus Gordon Tullock (long mentioned as a favorite of those predicting the Economics prize on this blog) is now included in the list:
* Douglas Diamond at the Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago, for his analysis of financial intermediation and monitoring.
* Jerry A. Hausman of Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Halbert White of University of California San Diego for their contributions to econometrics.
* Anne Krueger of Johns Hopkins University and Gordon Tullock of George Mason University School of Law, Arlington for their description of rent-seeking behavior and its implications.
Unfortunately, Thomson’s prediction rate has not been altogether impressive (see chart); but then again, predicting Nobel prizes isn’t so easy.
Here’s hoping the get this one on the first try. Gordon is an incredibly well-deserving candidate.
Of course, Thomson-Reuters listed Armen Alchian & Harold Demsetz as Citation Laureates back in 2008 — and they remain my absolute favorites for the prize (along with fellow UCLA economist Benjamin Klein).
