China

Paul H. Rubin —  27 June 2011

There are many stories about unrest in China.  Many factors are blamed for this unrest, including low wages, poor working conditions, and political factors.  But there is one thing that is not generally mentioned:  demographics.  The one child policy coupled with a preference for males (due to both economic and cultural factors) means that there ar significant numbers of unmarried and probably unmarriageable males.  This leads to severe male-male competition.  However, it also means that there are large numbers of socially discontent men with little to lose.  Similar factors probably operated in the Arabic world.  In both cases, it may be difficult to maintain an open democratic society.  I discussed this in Darwinian Politics, beginning at page 118.  It is also the theme of the book Bare Branches by Valerie M. Hudson and Andrea M. den Boer.  Because of demographic factors relating both to a very peculiar age structure and the gender imbalance mentioned here, China is going to face serious difficulties in the future.  Those projecting increasing power for China do not always take these factors into account.

Paul H. Rubin

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PAUL H. RUBIN is Samuel Candler Dobbs Professor of Economics at Emory University in Atlanta and formerly editor in chief of Managerial and Decision Economics. He blogs at Truth on the Market. He was President of the Southern Economic Association in 2013. He is a Fellow of the Public Choice Society and is associated with the Technology Policy Institute, the American Enterprise Institute, and the Independent Institute. Dr. Rubin has been a Senior Economist at President Reagan's Council of Economic Advisers, Chief Economist at the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission, Director of Advertising Economics at the Federal Trade Commission, and vice-president of Glassman-Oliver Economic Consultants, Inc., a litigation consulting firm in Washington. He has taught economics at the University of Georgia, City University of New York, VPI, and George Washington University Law School. Dr. Rubin has written or edited eleven books, and published over two hundred and fifty articles and chapters on economics, law, regulation, and evolution in journals including the American Economic Review, Journal of Political Economy, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Journal of Legal Studies, and the Journal of Law and Economics, and he frequently contributes to the Wall Street Journal and other leading newspapers. His work has been cited in the professional literature over 8000 times. Books include Managing Business Transactions, Free Press, 1990, Tort Reform by Contract, AEI, 1993, Privacy and the Commercial Use of Personal Information, Kluwer, 2001, (with Thomas Lenard), Darwinian Politics: The Evolutionary Origin of Freedom, Rutgers University Press, 2002, and Economics, Law and Individual Rights, Routledge, 2008 (edited, with Hugo Mialon). He has consulted widely on litigation related matters and has been an adviser to the Congressional Budget Office on tort reform. He has addressed numerous business, professional, policy, government and academic audiences. Dr. Rubin received his B.A. from the University of Cincinnati in 1963 and his Ph.D. from Purdue University in 1970.