Predicting the Nobel Again …

Cite this Article
Josh Wright, Predicting the Nobel Again …, Truth on the Market (October 07, 2007),

Greg Mankiw and Tyler Cowen have started the speculation. Cowen prefers “Anne Krueger, Jagdish Bhagwati, and Gordon Tullock for their work on rent-seeking” but predicts a behavioral finance prize to Fama, Thaler & French or a prize for research on the principal-agent theory of the firm to Williamson and/or Tirole. Mankiw predicts Fama, Feldstein, or Barro based on some citation analysis. Thomson Scientific adds their own predictions here.

I should note that I’m not very good at this Nobel prediction game. Last year I incorrectly predicted that Fama, Thaler & French would win the prize and ended up losing a very expensive and tasty dinner bet to Geoff. While those were my predictions, I made the case that the prize should go to either Tullock (rent-seeking) or jointly to Alchian, Demsetz and Klein (theory of the firm, property rights, transaction costs economics — can we just call this contributions to industrial organization?). Its a new year. But I don’t see why my picks should change this year. I haven’t learned anything between then and now about how these things work, and my views on the economists certainly haven’t changed. So here goes:

  • Prediction: Fama, Thaler and French.
  • Preference: A prize to the UCLA group of Alchian, Demsetz and Klein or my colleague Gordon Tullock.

Geoff: Want to take advantage of my stubbornness and take the field again against a group including Fama, Thaler, Williamson, Holmstrom, and Barro?