In light of yesterday’s abysmal jobs report, yesterday’s Wall Street Journal op-ed by Stanford economist John B. Taylor (Rules for America’s Road to Recovery) is a must-read. Taylor begins by identifying what he believes is the key hindrance to economic recovery in the U.S.:
In my view, unpredictable economic policy—massive fiscal “stimulus” and ballooning debt, the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing with multiyear near-zero interest rates, and regulatory uncertainty due to Obamacare and the Dodd-Frank financial reforms—is the main cause of persistent high unemployment and our feeble recovery from the recession.
A reform strategy built on more predictable, rules-based fiscal, monetary and regulatory policies will help restore economic prosperity.
Taylor goes on (as have I) to exhort policy makers to study F.A. Hayek, who emphasized the importance of clear rules in a free society. Hayek explained:
Stripped of all technicalities, [the Rule of Law] means that government in all its actions is bound by rules fixed and announced beforehand—rules which make it possible to foresee with fair certainty how the authority will use its coercive powers in given circumstances and to plan one’s individual affairs on the basis of this knowledge.
Taylor observes that “[r]ules-based policies make the economy work better by providing a predictable policy framework within which consumers and businesses make decisions.” But that’s not all: “they also protect freedom.” Thus, “Hayek understood that a rules-based system has a dual purpose—freedom and prosperity.”
We are in a period of unprecedented regulatory uncertainty. Consider Dodd-Frank. That statute calls for 398 rulemakings by federal agencies. Law firm Davis Polk reports that as of June 1, 2012, 221 rulemaking deadlines have expired. Of those 221 passed deadlines, 73 (33%) have been met with finalized rules, and 148 (67%) have been missed. The uncertainty, it seems, is far from over.
Taylor’s Hayek-inspired counsel mirrors that offered by President Reagan’s economic team at the beginning of his presidency, a time of economic malaise similar to that we’re currently experiencing. In a 1980 memo reprinted in last weekend’s Wall Street Journal, Reagan’s advisers offered the following advice:
…The need for a long-term point of view is essential to allow for the time, the coherence, and the predictability so necessary for success. This long-term view is as important for day-to-day problem solving as for the making of large policy decisions. Most decisions in government are made in the process of responding to problems of the moment. The danger is that this daily fire fighting can lead the policy-maker farther and farther from his goals. A clear sense of guiding strategy makes it possible to move in the desired direction in the unending process of contending with issues of the day. Many failures of government can be traced to an attempt to solve problems piecemeal. The resulting patchwork of ad hoc solutions often makes such fundamental goals as military strength, price stability, and economic growth more difficult to achieve. …
Consistency in policy is critical to effectiveness. Individuals and business enterprises plan on a long-range basis. They need to have an environment in which they can conduct their affairs with confidence. …
With these fundamentals in place, the American people will respond. As the conviction grows that the policies will be sustained in a consistent manner over an extended period, the response will quicken.
If you haven’t done so, read both pieces (Taylor’s op-ed and the Reagan memo) in their entirety.
