Nobel Odds

Josh Wright —  8 October 2009

Looks like my perennial Alchian, Demsetz & Klein UCLA trio prediction didn’t make the list, though I see several candidates who would be honored for contributions in the theory of the firm, property rights or transaction costs.  Announcements Monday.  Here’s the list from Ladbrokes (HT: Mankiw):

Eugene Fama 2/1
Paul Romer 4/1
Ernst Fehr 6/1
Kenneth R. French 6/1
William Nordhaus 6/1
Robert Barro 7/1
Matthew J Rabin 8/1
Jean Tirole 9/1
Martin Weitzman 9/1
Chris Pissarides 10/1
Dale T Mortensen 10/1
Xavier Sala-i-Martin 10/1
Avinash Dixit 14/1
Jagdish N. Bhagwati 14/1
Robert Schiller [sic] 14/1
William Baumol 16/1
Martin S. Feldstein 20/1
Christopher Sims 25/1
Lars P. Hansen 25/1
Nancy Stokey 25/1
Peter A Diamond 25/1
Thomas J. Sargent 25/1
Dale Jorgenson 33/1
Paul Milgrom 33/1
Oliver Hart 40/1
Bengt R Holmstrom 50/1
Elhanan Helpman 50/1
Ellinor Ostrom 50/1
Gene M Grossman 50/1
Karl-Goran Maler 50/1
Oliver Williamson 50/1
Robert B Wilson 50/1

One response to Nobel Odds


    I’m hoping Fama wins and destroys whatever credibility the “Nobel Prize” in economics has left. EMH is a perfect example of an elegant model that has been blindly defended by academic economists despite all the disconfirming real world evidence – Warren Buffett, Edward Thorp, Jim Simons, 1987 crash, internet bubble, GFC, etc etc.