I had never heard of Intrade before. Maybe I live in a hole.
Let’s see here: I’d love to short the bid for Dec. 07 if it wasn’t at zero. No way I’d touch the 10 ask. I think there’s over a 90% chance this goes into next year. The bid/ask spread is so big for Mar. 08 and Jun. 08 (40/60 and 60/80, respectively) as to make them unattractive too. However, if my hand were forced, I’d short the bid of 40 for Mar. 08. I guess another way of framing that is to say I’m more likely to believe there’s at least a 60% chance this extends past Mar. 08 as opposed to the other “break even” alternatives of a 60% chance it doesn’t, a 40% chance it extends past Jun. 08, or an 80% chance it doesn’t. This is all assuming a “buy and hold” strategy.
My actual strategy is…………………no purchase…………………..secret answer C.
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