Archives For demographics

China

Paul H. Rubin —  27 June 2011

There are many stories about unrest in China.  Many factors are blamed for this unrest, including low wages, poor working conditions, and political factors.  But there is one thing that is not generally mentioned:  demographics.  The one child policy coupled with a preference for males (due to both economic and cultural factors) means that there ar significant numbers of unmarried and probably unmarriageable males.  This leads to severe male-male competition.  However, it also means that there are large numbers of socially discontent men with little to lose.  Similar factors probably operated in the Arabic world.  In both cases, it may be difficult to maintain an open democratic society.  I discussed this in Darwinian Politics, beginning at page 118.  It is also the theme of the book Bare Branches by Valerie M. Hudson and Andrea M. den Boer.  Because of demographic factors relating both to a very peculiar age structure and the gender imbalance mentioned here, China is going to face serious difficulties in the future.  Those projecting increasing power for China do not always take these factors into account.