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Do Exclusionary Theories of the AT&T / T-Mobile Transaction Better Explain the Market’s Reaction to the DOJ’s Decision to Challenge the Merger?

Posted by Josh Wright on September 1, 2011

I don’t think so.

Let’s start from the beginning.  In my last post, I pointed out that simple economic theory generates some pretty clear predictions concerning the impact of a merger on rival stock prices.  If a merger is results in a more efficient competitor, and more intense post-merger competition, rivals are made worse off while consumers benefit.  On the other hand, if a merger is is likely to result in collusion or a unilateral price increase, the rivals firms are made better off while consumers suffer.

I pointed to this graph of Sprint and Clearwire stock prices increasing dramatically upon announcement of the merger to illustrate the point that it appears rivals are doing quite well:

The WSJ reports the increases at 5.9% and 11.5%, respectively.  In reaction to the WSJ and other stories highlighting this market reaction to the DOJ complaint, I asked what I think is an important set of questions:

How many of the statements in the DOJ complaint, press release and analysis are consistent with this market reaction?  If the post-merger market would be less competitive than the status quo, as the DOJ complaint hypothesizes, why would the market reward Sprint and Clearwire for an increased likelihood of facing greater competition in the future?

A few of our always excellent commenters argued that the analysis above was either incomplete or incorrect.  My claim was that the dramatic increase in stock market prices of Sprint and Clearwire were more consistent with a procompetitive merger than the theories in the DOJ complaint.

Commenters raised three important points and I appreciate their thoughtful responses.

First, the procompetitive theory does not explain the change in all stock market prices.  For example, readers pointed out that Verizon’s stock barely ticked downward, while smaller carriers MetroPCS and Leap both fell (.8% and 2.3%, respectively, according to the WSJ).  The procompetitive theory, the commenters argued, implies that Verizon and these other rivals should move upward.

Second, they argue that perhaps an exclusionary theory of the merger better explains these stock price reactions.  Indeed, the new 2010 Horizontal Merger Guidelines included (not without controversy) potential exclusionary effects (“Enhanced market power may also make it more likely that the merged entity can profitably and effectively engage in exclusionary conduct. “).  Rick Brunell of AAI writes:

Although the smaller carriers may gain in the short run due from a merger that raises prices, they also may lose in the long run due to its exclusionary effects, a theory that was front and center of Sprint’s opposition (and the smaller carriers’). Notably Verizon, which has no reason to fear exclusion and would have the most to lose if the merger were actually efficient, has not opposed the merger.”

Similarly, Matt Bodie writes:

Why wouldn’t the market’s reaction be a sign of this: (a) the AT&T/T-Mobile merger will give the new entity strong market power, (b) there are strong anticompetitive as well as efficiency gains from being bigger and having more market size, (c) the newly merged company would use that power to crush its weakest competitors, i.e. Sprint? After all, isn’t there a traditional story where monopolists cut prices to drive other competitors out, but then gradually raise price once their market power allows it, especially in industries with high barriers to entry?”

The basics of the exclusionary theory of the merger is that the anticompetitive harm is not coordination or unilateral price increases from the direct acquisition of market power, i.e. the elimination of competition from a close rival.  Rather, the exclusionary theory posits that the post-merger firm will have sufficient market power to exclude rivals from access to a critical input (e.g. backhaul) and, as Matt has it, “crush its weakest competitors.”  So to Matt, yes, there is that theory in antitrust.  But note that the post-merger share of the combined entity here would be nowhere close to traditional monopoly power standards required to make out a monopolization claim under Section 2 of the Sherman Act.  The new Guidelines do quasi-endorse the possibility of a Minority-Report like merger enforcement search for exclusion that doesn’t reach Section 2 standards post-merger, but might someday, but also needs to be stopped now.  But it is decidedly not standard in merger analysis. And this case is probably not a good test case for that theory; at least the DOJ thinks so.  But no, I don’t think the market reaction is reflecting concerns about exclusion.  More on that in a second.  But for now note that this is not simply a legal point.  While the law requires the demonstration of monopoly power for a Section 2 claim, the economic literature focusing upon exclusion also considers market power a necessary but not sufficient condition for competitive harm.  For the same reasons the exclusion claim would be rejected post-merger on legal grounds if we accept the market definition alleged by the DOJ, exclusion is unlikely as a matter of economics.

Put simply, the exclusionary theory’s proponents argue that it can explain the increase in Sprint’s stock price (reduced likelihood of future exclusion because of the DOJ challenge) and Verizon’s inconsequential reaction (it has “no reason to fear exclusion”).

Just so everybody is seeing the same thing — here is a chart with 5 days of trading including Verizon, Sprint, Clearwire, MetroPCS, Leap and the S&P 500.

Third, commenters argue that this simple analysis doesn’t account for other important factors.  NB writes:

Why did you choose Sprint particularly? Verizon, a larger and far more significant competitor, had its stock drop sharply in that same period you show Sprint “surging”. MetroPCS’s stock also dropped.

So what does it mean when a weak competitor’s stock jumps but two other competitors who are doing well have their stock drop? Other than that there are clearly more factors in play here?

Enough questions; time for answers.

Why Didn’t I Include the Exclusionary Theory of Harm?

I plead guilty.  Or at least guilty with an explanation.  I didn’t discuss the possibility of exclusion and whether it would better explain these market reactions than the theory that the merger is efficient or anticompetitive because it will facilitate coordination or unilateral price increases.  As it turns out, however, the reason is that the post was motivated by the following question:

How many of the statements in the DOJ complaint, press release and analysis are consistent with this market reaction?

Turns out, I’m in pretty good company in omitting this theory.  The DOJ didn’t allege it either.  As discussed above, the DOJ specifically alleged that the merger would result in coordinated effects in the national market and/or unilateral price increases.  Rick Brunell accurately points out that Sprint and AAI have both made these arguments.  Indeed, when I testified in the House on the merger, there were a lot of questions raised about exclusionary concerns.   But the bottom line is that they are not in the Complaint.  Apparently, those arguments did not persuade the Justice Department.  I have no intention on running from the interesting question posed by the commenters that the exclusion theory does a better job of explaining market price reactions.  That’s next.  But for now, let me say that I think there is a good reason the DOJ did not accept the Sprint / AAI invitation to adopt the exclusion theory.

Does Exclusion Do A Better Job of Explaining Verizon’s Non-Movement or Slight Fall? 

I think proponents of the exclusion theory of the merger have a tough task here.  Notice that the prediction of the exclusionary theory is NOT that Verizon’s stock price will stay put or fall.  Instead, it is that it will increase post-merger.  While Brunell observes that Verizon need not fear post-merger exclusion itself, it would certainly be happy to free-ride on the allegedly imminent exclusionary efforts of the newly merged firm.  Post-Chicagoans often invoke the argument that “competition is a public good” when explaining why a downstream input provider has reason to go along with an upstream firm’s attempt to monopolize.   Bork argued that the downstream firm had no reason to engage in a contract with the upstream provider that would increase the likelihood that he would be facing an upstream monopolist (and thus worse terms of trade) tomorrow.  The classic Post-Chicago response is that each downstream firm doesn’t take into account the impact of his private decision to enter into such a contract with the would-be monopolist — that is, competition is a public good.  The flip side of this argument is that exclusion is a public good too!   To put it more concretely, if the post-merger combination of AT&T / T-Mobile were able to successfully exclude Sprint and smaller carriers such as MetroPCS and Leap, and thereby reduce competition, the clear implication of this theory is that Verizon would benefit.

The relevant economics here are not limited to the possibility that post-merger AT&T would successfully exclude Verizon.  Think about it: both Verizon and the post-merger firm would benefit from the exclusionary efforts and reduced competition.  However, Verizon would stand to gain even more!  After all, it isn’t paying the $39 billion purchase price for the acquisition (or any of the other costs of implementing an expensive exclusion campaign).  Thus, an announcement to block the would-be exclusionary merger — the one that would allow Verizon to outsource the exclusion of its rivals to AT&T on the cheap — wouldn’t happen.  Verizon stock should fall relative to the market in response to this lost opportunity.  The unilateral and coordinated effects theories in the DOJ complaint are at significant tension with the stock market reactions of firms like Sprint (and its affiliated venture, Clearwire).  The exclusion theory predicts a large decrease in stock price for Verizon with the announcement.   None of these comfortably fit the facts.  Verizon more or less tracks the S&P with a slight drop.  What about the smaller carriers?  Take a look at the chart.  MetroPCS barely moved relative to the market (in fact, may have increased relative to the market over the relevant time period); Leap is down a bit more than the market.   Here, with the smaller carriers there is not a lot of movement in any direction.  But, contra NB’s comment (“Verizon, a larger and far more significant competitor, had its stock drop sharply in that same period you show Sprint “surging”. MetroPCS’s stock also dropped.”), Verizon’s small fall relative to the market is nowhere near the magnitude of the positive effect on Sprint and Clearwire.

But what about competition?  Isn’t it true that if the merger was procompetitive a challenge announcement would likely mean less competition for Verizon and also predict an increase in stock price?  AAI’s comment tries to have this both ways.  If Verizon’s price stays still, its because it has nothing to fear from exclusion (contra the economics above); if it goes down, the DOJ announcement has decreased the likelihood of those coordinated effects Sprint and AAI argued were so likely (but then there is Sprint’s big jump); and if Verizon prices increase then it just means that we weren’t right in the first instance than they were safe from exclusion.  One is reminded of Tom Smith and his incredible bread machine.   But this leads to an interesting point.  Brunell and AAI (and perhaps other proponents of the DOJ challenge), as pointed out in the comments, appear to agree with me that stock market reactions are probative evidence of competitive effects.  Perhaps they believe that the exclusionary theory is a better explanation of the facts — I obviously don’t think so.  But we are where we are.  That theory is not alleged.  Now that we’ve observed the quite significant stock market reaction of Sprint to the challenge announcement.  Do we at least agree those facts are in tension with the coordinated effects theory made so prominent in the DOJ complaint???

Couldn’t There Be Other Important Factors Explaining Stock Price Movements Unrelated to the Competitive Implications of the DOJ’s Challenge?

To write the question is to answer it.  You bet there could be.  And indeed, I wrote in the first post that while the fairly dramatic stock price reactions of Sprint and Clearwire were probative, the post was not a full-blown event study that would account for those events, formulate a market model, and test for the abnormal returns surrounding the announcement controlling for other important events.  Further, not all competitors are created equal.  Under the efficiency story, the distribution of benefits will accrue proportionately to the rivals who were most likely to face increased competition post-merger (and now are more likely not to).  I certainly agree with Rick Brunell’s summary comment that the stock price evidence is somewhat “mixed.”  There are small and relatively ambiguous effects — once one includes the market performance — on the stock prices of Metro and Verizon.  Leap is more clearly down, even if by a small amount relative to the market.   There may well be a variety of factors unrelated to the announcement confounding effects here.  This is the reason we do real event studies in practice and why I do not believe the simple collection of evidence here warrants sweeping conclusions about the merits of the merger.

However, the DOJ complaint tells us that the important competitive players in the market — the “Big Four” — are AT&T, T-Mobile, Sprint, and Verizon.  Focusing upon the non-merging big 4, we see Sprint’s price going up dramatically and Verizon’s staying put.  The former is simply more consistent with procompetitive theories than the coordinated effects and unilateral effects theories alleged in the DOJ complaint.  One might expect an announcement to block a procompetitive merger to have a greater positive impact on Verizon stock.  But, as many have observed in the press, the impact of the merger upon Verizon is complicated by a number of factors, not the least of which is that the challenge announcement increases the likelihood that the DOJ is committed to challenging any future attempts to merger by Verizon.  Unless spectrum capacity is increased dramatically (see this excellent Adam Thierer post on this score) in the very near future it is difficult to see how the reduced ability to exercise that significant and valuable option would not also impact Verizon.  Thus, while not a slam dunk by any means, the procompetitive theory of the merger does a pretty decent job on the Big Four.   It certainly beats the coordination theory trumpeted in the Complaint.  As for the attempt of AAI and Sprint to salvage the DOJ complaint with the exclusionary theory — perhaps it is not too late to amend, but it isn’t there now and I’d warn the DOJ against including it.  With respect to the DOJ’s Big Four, the exclusionary theory is not only new and relatively controversial in the Guidelines, but also makes a strong prediction concerning a Verizon stock price increase that is inconsistent with the data.

There will certainly be more data as we move along.  And it should interesting to watch how things unfold both in the market and between the DOJ and FCC as well.  For now, however, color me unconvinced by the heavy reliance upon the structural, “Big 4 collusion” story leading the Complaint and the attempts to save it with exclusionary theories.

Posted in antitrust, business, economics, exclusionary conduct, merger guidelines, mergers & acquisitions, monopolization, technology, telecommunications, wireless | 7 Comments »

Why Is Sprint’s Stock Surging Upon the Announcement of the DOJ’s Challenge to the Proposed AT&T / T-Mobile Merger?

Posted by Josh Wright on August 31, 2011

Basic economic theory underlies the conventional antitrust wisdom that if a merger makes the merging party a more effective competitorby lowering its costs, rivals facing this more effective competitor post-merger are made worse off, but consumers benefit.  On the other hand, if a merger is likely to result in collusion or a unilateral price increase, the rival firm is made better off while consumers suffer.  In the latter case — the one the DOJ complaint asserts we are experiencing with respect to the proposed AT&T merger — marketwide coordination or reduction of competition resulting in higher prices makes the non-merging rival better off.

Basic economic theory thus generates a set of clear testable implications for the DOJ’s theory of the transaction:

  • (1) events that the merger more likely should have a negative impact upon non-merging rivals’ stock prices when the merger is procompetitive (reflecting the likelihood the firm will face a more efficient, lower-cost rival in the future);
  • (2) events that make a merger less likely should have a positive impact upon non-merging rivals’ stock prices when the merger is procompetitive (reflecting the reduced likelihood that the merger will face the more efficient competitor in the future)
  • (3) by similar economic logic, events that make an anticompetitive merger more likely to occur should result in increase non-merging rivals’ stock prices (who will benefit from higher market prices) while events that make an anticompetitive merger less likely should decrease non-merging rivals’ stock prices.

The DOJ complaint clearly stakes out its position that the merger will be anticompetitive, and result in higher market prices.  Paragraph 36 of the DOJ’s complaint focuses upon potential post-merger coordination:

The substantial increase in concentration that would result from this merger, and the reduction in the number of nationwide providers from four to three, likely will lead to lessened competition due to an enhanced risk of anticompetitive coordination. … Any anti competitive coordination at a national level would result in higher nationwide prices (or other nationwide harm) by the remaining national providers, Verizon, Sprint, and the merged entity. Such harm would affect consumers all across the nation, including those in rural areas with limited T-Mobile presence.

Paragraph 37 of the DOJ complaint turns to unilateral effects:

The proposed merger likely would lessen competition through elimination of head-to-head competition between AT&T and T-Mobile. … The proposed merger would, therefore, likely eliminate important competition between AT&T and T-Mobile.

If the DOJ’s allegations are correct, one would expect the market price for prominent non-merging rivals such as Sprint to fall upon today’s announcement that the DOJ will challenge the merger.   This is because the announcement decreases the likelihood that an anticompetitive merger will occur, and thus deprives the opportunity for non-merging rivals to enjoy the increased market prices and margins that would follow from post-merger collusion or unilateral price increases.

The NY Times Dealbook headline suggests otherwise: “Sprint Shares Surge on AT&T Setback.”  Geoff highlighted several of the DOJ’s claims in the report.  As the case unfolds, I think an important question to ask is how many of those allegations are consistent with the following data showing the market reactions of Sprint and Clearwire stock prices today.   I’ve included Clearwire both because Sprint owns a majority share in it and because of its recent announcement of plans to enter the 4G LTE space.

I’ve not run a full-blown event study here, obviously.   But the positive jump for Sprint (Blue Line) & Clearwire (Green Line) today in response to the announcement is hard to miss.  How many of the statements in the DOJ complaint, press release and analysis are consistent with this market reaction?    If the post-merger market would be less competitive than the status quo, as the DOJ complaint hypothesizes, why would the market reward Sprint and Clearwire for an increased likelihood of facing greater competition in the future?  The simplest alternative hypothesis is that the merger is likely procompetitive and rivals are enjoying a premium for the increased likelihood that they will avoid more intense competition in the future.  Is there a reason here to reject that simple hypothesis?   Will the market reaction induce the DOJ to revisit its priors?

Posted in antitrust, doj, economics, federal communications commission, merger guidelines, mergers & acquisitions, technology, wireless | 15 Comments »

A couple of quick thoughts on the DOJ’s filing to block AT&T/T-Mobile

Posted by Geoffrey Manne on August 31, 2011

As Josh noted, the DOJ filed a complaint today to block the merger.  I’m sure we’ll have much, much more to say on the topic, but here are a few things that jump out at me from perusing the complaint:

  • The DOJ distinguishes between the business (“Enterprise”) market and the consumer market.  This is actually a good play on their part, on the one hand, because it is more sensible to claim a national market for business customers who may be purchasing plans for widely-geographically-dispersed employees.  I would question how common this actually is, however, given that, I’m sure, most businesses that buy group cell plans are not IBM but are instead pretty small and pretty local, but still, it’s a good ploy.
  • But it has one significant problem:  The DOJ also seems to be stressing a coordinated effects story, making T-Mobile out to be a disruptive maverick disciplining the bigger carriers.  But–and this is, of course an empirical matter I will have to look in to–I highly doubt that T-Mobile plays anything like this role in the Enterprise market, at least for those enterprises that fit the DOJ’s overly-broad description.  In fact, the DOJ admits as much in para. 43 of its Complaint.  Of course, the DOJ claims this was all about to change, but that’s not a very convincing story coupled with the fact that DT, T-Mobile’s parent, was reducing its investment in the company anyway.  The reality is that Enterprise was not a key part of T-Mobile’s business model–if it occupied any cognizable part of it at all– and it can hardly be considered a maverick in a market in which it doesn’t actually operate.
  • On coordinated effects, I think the claim that T-Mobile is a maverick is pretty easily refuted, and not only in the Enterprise realm.  As Josh has pointed out in his Congressional testimony, a maverick is a term of art in antitrust, and it’s just not enough that a firm may be offering products at a lower price–there is nothing “maverick-y” about a firm that offers a different, less valuable product at a lower price.  I have seen no evidence to suggest that T-Mobile offered the kind of pricing constraint on AT&T that would be required to make it out to be a maverick.
  • Meanwhile, I know this is just a complaint and even post-Twombly pleading standards are lower than standards of proof, but the DOJ does seem t make a lot out of its HHI numbers.  In part this is a function of its adoption of a national relevant geographic market.  But (as noted above even for most Enterprise customers) this is just absurd.  As the FCC itself has noted, consumers buy cell service where they “live, work and travel.”  For most everyone, this is local.
  • Meanwhile, even on a national level, the blithe dismissal of a whole range of competitors is untenable.  MetroPCS, Cell South and many other companies have broad regional coverage (MetroPCS even has next-gen LTE service in something like 17 cities) and roaming agreements with each other and with the larger carriers that give them national coverage.  Why they should be excluded from consideration is baffling.  Moreover, Dish has just announced plans to build a national 4G network (take that, DOJ claim that entry is just impossible here!).  And perhaps most important the real competition here is not for mobile telephone service.  The merger is about broadband.  Mobile is one way of getting broadband.  So is cable and DSL and WiMax, etc.  That market includes such insignificant competitors as Time Warner, Comcast and Cox.  Calling this a 4 to 3 merger strains credulity, particularly under the new merger guidelines.
  • Moreover, the DOJ already said as much!  In its letter to the FCC on the FCC’s National Broadband Plan the DOJ says:

Ultimately what matters for any given consumer is the set of broadband offerings available to that consumer, including their technical characteristics and the commercial terms and conditions on which they are offered.  Competitive conditions vary considerably for consumers in different geographic locales.

  • The DOJ also said this, in the same letter:

[W]ith differentiated products subject to large economies of scale (relative to the size of the market), the Department does not expect to see a large number of suppliers. . . . [Rather, the DOJ cautions the FCC agains] striving for broadband markets that look like textbook markets of perfect competition, with many price-taking firms.  That market structure is unsuitable for the provision of broadband services.

Quite the different tune, now that it’s the DOJ’s turn to spring into action rather than simply admonish the antitrust activities of a sister agency!

I’m sure there is lots more, but I must say I’m really surprised and disappointed by this filing.  Effective, efficient provision of mobile broadband service is a complicated business.  It is severely hampered by constraints of the government’s own doing — both in terms of the government’s failure to make available spectrum to enable companies to build out large-scale broadband networks, and in local governments’ continued intransigence in permitting new cell towers and even co-location of cell sites on existing towers that would relieve some of the infuriating congestion we now experience.

This decision by the DOJ is an ill-conceived assault on innovation and progress in what may be the one shining segment of our bedraggled economy.

Posted in antitrust, business, doj, error costs, merger guidelines, mergers & acquisitions, technology, telecommunications | Tagged: , , , | 8 Comments »

DOJ Files Suit to Block AT&T / T-Mobile Merger

Posted by Josh Wright on August 31, 2011

More on this later.  For now, here is the complaint and the press release:

WASHINGTON – The Department of Justice today filed a civil antitrust lawsuit to block AT&T Inc.’s proposed acquisition of T-Mobile USA Inc.   The department said that the proposed $39 billion transaction would substantially lessen competition for mobile wireless telecommunications services across the United States, resulting in higher prices, poorer quality services, fewer choices and fewer innovative products for the millions of American consumers who rely on mobile wireless services in their everyday lives.

The department’s lawsuit, filed in U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, seeks to prevent AT&T from acquiring T-Mobile from Deutsche Telekom AG.

“The combination of AT&T and T-Mobile would result in tens of millions of consumers all across the United States facing higher prices, fewer choices and lower quality products for mobile wireless services,” said Deputy Attorney General James M. Cole.   “Consumers across the country, including those in rural areas and those with lower incomes, benefit from competition among the nation’s wireless carriers, particularly the four remaining national carriers.   This lawsuit seeks to ensure that everyone can continue to receive the benefits of that competition.”

“T-Mobile has been an important source of competition among the national carriers, including through innovation and quality enhancements such as the roll-out of the first nationwide high-speed data network,” said Sharis A. Pozen, Acting Assistant Attorney General in charge of the Department of Justice’s Antitrust Division.   “Unless this merger is blocked, competition and innovation will be reduced, and consumers will suffer.”

Mobile wireless telecommunications services play a critical role in the way Americans live and work, with more than 300 million feature phones, smart phones, data cards, tablets and other mobile wireless devices in service today.   Four nationwide providers of these services – AT&T, T-Mobile, Sprint and Verizon – account for more than 90 percent of mobile wireless connections.   The proposed acquisition would combine two of those four, eliminating from the market T-Mobile, a firm that historically has been a value provider, offering particularly aggressive pricing.

According to the complaint, AT&T and T-Mobile compete head to head nationwide, including in 97 of the nation’s largest 100 cellular marketing areas.   They also compete nationwide to attract business and government customers.  AT&T’s acquisition of T-Mobile would eliminate a company that has been a disruptive force through low pricing and innovation by competing aggressively in the mobile wireless telecommunications services marketplace.

The complaint cites a T-Mobile document in which T-Mobile explains that it has been responsible for a number of significant “firsts” in the U.S. mobile wireless industry, including the first handset using the Android operating system, Blackberry wireless email, the Sidekick, national Wi-Fi “hotspot” access, and a variety of unlimited service plans.   T-Mobile was also the first company to roll out a nationwide high-speed data network based on advanced HSPA+ (High-Speed Packet Access) technology.  The complaint states that by January 2011, an AT&T employee was observing that “[T-Mobile] was first to have HSPA+ devices in their portfolio…we added them in reaction to potential loss of speed claims.”

The complaint details other ways that AT&T felt competitive pressure from T-Mobile.   The complaint quotes T-Mobile documents describing the company’s important role in the market:

  • T-Mobile sees itself as “the No. 1 value challenger of the established big guys in the market and as well positioned in a consolidated 4-player national market”; and
  • T-Mobile’s strategy is to “attack incumbents and find innovative ways to overcome scale disadvantages.   [T-Mobile] will be faster, more agile, and scrappy, with diligence on decisions and costs both big and small.   Our approach to market will not be conventional, and we will push to the boundaries where possible. . . . [T-Mobile] will champion the customer and break down industry barriers with innovations. . . .”

The complaint also states that regional providers face significant competitive limitations, largely stemming from their lack of national networks, and are therefore limited in their ability to compete with the four national carriers.   And, the department said that any potential entry from a new mobile wireless telecommunications services provider would be unable to offset the transaction’s anticompetitive effects because it would be difficult, time-consuming and expensive, requiring spectrum licenses and the construction of a network.

The department said that it gave serious consideration to the efficiencies that the merging parties claim would result from the transaction.   The department concluded AT&T had not demonstrated that the proposed transaction promised any efficiencies that would be sufficient to outweigh the transaction’s substantial adverse impact on competition and consumers.   Moreover, the department said that AT&T could obtain substantially the same network enhancements that it claims will come from the transaction if it simply invested in its own network without eliminating a close competitor.

AT&T is a Delaware corporation headquartered in Dallas.   AT&T is one of the world’s largest providers of communications services, and is the second largest mobile wireless telecommunications services provider in the United States as measured by subscribers.   It serves approximately 98.6 million connections to wireless devices.   In 2010, AT&T earned mobile wireless telecommunications services revenues of $53.5 billion, and its total revenues were in excess of $124 billion.

T-Mobile, is a Delaware corporation headquartered in Bellevue, Wash.   T-Mobile is the fourth-largest mobile wireless telecommunications services provider in the United States as measured by subscribers, and serves approximately 33.6 million wireless connections to wireless devices.   In 2010, T-Mobile earned mobile wireless telecommunications services revenues of $18.7 billion.   T-Mobile is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Deutsche Telekom AG.

Deutsche Telekom AG is a German corporation headquartered in Bonn, Germany.   It is the largest telecommunications operator in Europe with wireline and wireless interests in numerous countries and total annual revenues in 2010 of €62.4 billion.

 

Posted in antitrust, business, economics, federal communications commission, merger guidelines, mergers & acquisitions, technology, telecommunications, wireless | 2 Comments »

Eighth Circuit Affirms District Court Against FTC in Lundbeck

Posted by Josh Wright on August 19, 2011

Here’s the decision; here is my prior post concerning the district court decision.  I suspect the FTC was fairly confident it would succeed in persuading the panel to reverse.  The appeal turns on whether the district court was clearly erroneous in ruling that the FTC had failed to properly define a relevant market, and in turn, whether evidence of switching between the two drugs (Indocin IV and NeoProfen) by neonatologists (and/or hospitals) supported the a product market that encompassed both drugs.  The Eighth Circuit concluded the district court’s findings were not clearly erroneous, and thus, affirmed its judgment.

Here, I think, is the key paragraph on the FTC’s argument about behavior of marginal consumers and market definition:

Further attacking the district court’s reliance on consumer preference, the FTC argues that the court ignored the ability of marginal customers to constrain prices.  Whether there are enough marginal consumers to constrain prices is a factual question
that requires analyzing consumer-demand and profit-margins. See Tenet Health Care Corp., 186 F.3d at 1050-51, 1054 (marginal consumer substitution and profit-margins must be supported with more than “common sense.” This court pointed to the “compelling and essentially unrefuted [critical loss analysis] evidence that the switch to another [product] by a small percentage of [consumers] would constrain a price increase” as evidence of marginal consumer’s ability to constrain prices in a broader geographic market); see also United States v. Engelhard Corp., 126 F.3d 1302, 1306 (11th Cir. 1997) (requiring evidence in order to evaluate the possibility that losing marginal customers responsible for high-margin purchases may constrain prices). The FTC offered testimony of one expert explaining that “marginal customers”–neonatologists who are ambivalent between prescribing Indocin IV or NeoProfen–may constrain prices on either drug. Although not addressing this testimony in its fact-findings, the district court did state that it generally found the FTC expert unpersuasive. See Fox v. Dannenberg, 906 F.2d 1253, 1256 (8th Cir. 1990) (“The question of the expert’s credibility and the weight to be accorded the expert testimony are ultimately for the trier of fact to determine.”). Critically, the
district court did credit Lundbeck’s expert who stated that the number of neonatologists willing to switch between the drugs based on price was insufficient to exercise price constraint. See Pioneer Hi-Bred Int’l v. Holden Found. Seeds, Inc., 35 F.3d 1226, 1238 (8th Cir. 1994) (“[This court] will not disturb the district court’s decision to credit the reasonable testimony of one of two competing experts.”).
Lundbeck’s expert was clear that even those neonatologists who might be willing to switch in response to a price difference would do so only if there was a very significant price decrease, indicating that the level of cross-elasticity was low.

The Eighth Circuit panel also quickly dismissed the Commission’s arguments based upon internal documents and apparent functional similarity between the drugs.   On the internal documents, here is the relevant portion of the opinion:

According to Lundbeck’s internal documents, it anticipated that a dramatic price increase of Indocin IV would draw generic competitors into the market. As a result, it ceased promoting Indocin IV, focusing instead on increasing the market share of NeoProfen–as a superior PDA treatment. The FTC argues that this business strategy–to market NeoProfen as better than Indocin IV–means that Lundbeck viewed NeoProfen as a direct competitor to Indocin IV, and thus the drugs must be in the same product market. However, Lundbeck’s strategy to discontinue promoting Indocin IV in favor of NeoProfen can also be interpreted to mean that while Indocin IV was vulnerable to generics, NeoProfen was not, and thus the products are not interchangeable. If there are two permissible views of evidence, the factfinder’s choice between them is not clearly erroneous. Anderson, 470 U.S. at 574.

Judge Kopf offers up an interesting and reluctant concurrence, which appears here in full:

When defining the product market, and considering the issue of cross-elasticity of demand, the district court relied heavily upon the testimony of doctors that they would use Indocin or NeoProfen without regard to price. Admittedly, those doctors had no responsibility to pay for the drugs or otherwise concern themselves with cost. Thus, the doctors had scant incentive to conserve the scarce resources that would be devoted to paying for the medication. Why the able and experienced trial judge relied upon the doctors’ testimony so heavily is perplexing. In an antitrust case, it seems odd to define a product market based upon the actions of actors who eschew rational economic considerations. See, e.g., F.T.C. v. Tenet Health Care Corp., 186 F.3d 1045, 1054 & n.14 (8th Cir. 1999) (observing that “market participants are not always in the best position to assess the market long term” and that is particularly so where their testimony is “contrary to the payers’ economic interests and thus is suspect”).  That oddity seems especially strange where, as here, there is no real dispute that (1) both drugs are effective when used to treat the illness about which the doctors testified
and (2) internal records from the defendant raise an odor of predation. The foregoing having been said, the standard of review carries the day in this case as it does in so many others. As a result, I fully concur in Judge Benton’s excellent opinion.

It will be interesting to see whether the Commission press release on this doubles down on its earlier assertion that “Ovation’s profiteering on the backs of critically ill premature babies is not only immoral, it is illegal.”

Posted in antitrust, federal trade commission, merger guidelines, mergers & acquisitions | 1 Comment »

Review of Industrial Organization Special Merger Guidelines Issue

Posted by Josh Wright on August 2, 2011

The August 2011 issue of Review of Industrial Organization is a special issue on the 2010 Horizontal Merger Guidelines edited by Roger Blair.

The issue is available here, and includes articles from:

  • Herbert Hovenkamp
  • Robert Willig
  • Wayne-Roy Gale, Robert C. Marshall, Leslie M. Marx and Jean-Francois Richard
  • Roger D. Blair and Jessica S. Haynes
  • John F. Lopatka
  • Keith N. Hylton
  • Louis Kaplow
  • Dennis Carlton and Mark Israel
  • Roger Blair and Christina DePasquale
  • Judd E. Stone and Joshua D. Wright
  • Michael A. Salinger

My own contribution, The Sound of One Hand Clapping: The 2010 Merger Guidelines and the Challenge of Judicial Adoption, focuses upon the asymmetric economic updating of the Guidelines on the “competitive effects” side of the ledger without corresponding updates with respect to efficiencies analysis.  We explore whether this asymmetric updating might risk the widespread judicial adoption the Guidelines have thus far enjoyed.

 

Posted in antitrust, economics, merger guidelines, mergers & acquisitions | Comments Off

FCC Competition Report is one green light for AT&T-T-Mobile deal

Posted by Geoffrey Manne on July 11, 2011

BY LARRY DOWNES AND GEOFFREY A. MANNE

The FCC published in June its annual report on the state of competition in the mobile services marketplace. Under ordinary circumstances, this 300-plus page tome would sit quietly on the shelf, since, like last year’s report, it ‘‘makes no formal finding as to whether there is, or is not, effective competition in the industry.’’

But these are not ordinary circumstances. Thanks to innovations including new smartphones and tablet computers, application (app) stores and the mania for games such as ‘‘Angry Birds,’’ the mobile industry is perhaps the only sector of the economy where consumer demand is growing explosively.

Meanwhile, the pending merger between AT&T and T-Mobile USA, valued at more than $39 billion, has the potential to accelerate development of the mobile ecosystem. All eyes, including many in Congress, are on the FCC and the Department of Justice. Their review of the deal could take the rest of the year. So the FCC’s refusal to make a definitive finding on the competitive state of the industry has left analysts poring through the report, reading the tea leaves for clues as to how the FCC will evaluate the proposed merger.

Make no mistake: this is some seriously expensive tea. If the deal is rejected, AT&T is reported to have agreed to pay T-Mobile $3 billion in cash for its troubles. Some competitors, notably Sprint, have declared full-scale war, marshaling an army of interest groups and friendly journalists.

But the deal makes good economic sense for consumers. Most important, T-Mobile’s spectrum assets will allow AT&T to roll out a second national 4G LTE (longterm evolution) network to compete with Verizon’s, and expand service to rural customers. (Currently, only 38 percent of rural customers have three or more choices for mobile broadband.)

More to the point, the government has no legal basis for turning down the deal based on its antitrust review. Under the law, the FCC must approve AT&T’s bid to buy T-Mobile USA unless the agency can prove the transaction is not ‘‘in the public interest.’’ While the FCC’s public interest standard is famously undefined, the agency typically balances the benefits of the deal against potential harm to consumers. If the benefits outweigh the harms, the Commission must approve.

The benefits are there, and the harms are few. Though the FCC refuses to acknowledge it explicitly, the report’s impressive detail amply supports what everyone already knows: falling prices, improved quality, dynamic competition and unflagging innovation have led to a golden age of mobile services. Indeed, the three main themes of the report all support AT&T’s contention that competition will thrive and the public’s interests will be well served by combining with T-Mobile.

Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in antitrust, federal communications commission, law and economics, mergers & acquisitions, technology, telecommunications | Tagged: , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Office Superstores, Again?

Posted by Josh Wright on July 6, 2011

FTC v. Staples is a seminal case in modern antitrust analysis of horizontal mergers.  Judge Posner has described it as the economic “coming of age” of merger analysis.   It is also a landmark decision in the development of unilateral effects theories.  Despite the fact that Judge Hogan did not explicitly rely upon the econometric evidence presented to demonstrate that a post-merger combination of Staples and Office Depot would be able to increase prices, it is also often discussed as having particular importance for the role of econometrics in antitrust analysis.  As Jonathan Baker observes:

Judge Hogan’s hidden opinion supports the government’s use of econometric evidence, though the court did not trumpet doing so. The opinion never uses the term, presumably in a conscious effort to downplay novelty in order to avoid creating an issue for appeal. Yet Judge Hogan demonstrably relied on econometric evidence in one instance,(14) when he stated that “in this case the defendants have projected a pass through rate of two-thirds of the savings while the evidence shows that, historically, Staples has passed through only 15-17%.”(15) The sole basis in the record for the 15-17% figure is the testimony of the FTC’s econometric expert as to the conclusions of his statistical analysis of the pass-through rate.

The district court was persuaded by the FTC’s pricing evidence, and evidence that entry would not timely, likely and sufficient to counter any price increase.  Part of that entry analysis was rejecting the defendant’s claim that firms like Walmart would discipline any attempt to increase prices.  In any interesting turn of events, nearly 15 years later, it looks like we are heading toward another significant merger between office superstores:

Office Depot Inc. (ODP) and OfficeMax Inc. (OMX) may need to merge after heightened competition for office-supply sales and a 26-year high in the U.S. unemployment rate helped wipe out almost $13 billion of shareholder value.

Office Depot, the second-largest U.S. office-supply chain, has plunged 90 percent to $1.16 billion in the last five years, more than any American retailer that still has a market value greater than $500 million, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. OfficeMax was valued at $664 million yesterday after plummeting 78 percent, the third-steepest drop. Both trade at 10 cents or less per dollar of sales — one-tenth of the industry average and ranking in the bottom five of 126 retailers.

Interestingly, competitive pressure from Wal-Mart and Target, among others, appears to have developed into a significant force in the market.

With businesses spending less on paper and printers as the U.S. jobless rate hovers at 9 percent, combining Office Depot with OfficeMax may reduce costs by almost $500 million, said KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc. Regulatory approval won’t be a hurdle because of more competition from Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) and Target Corp. (TGT) since Staples Inc. (SPLS) was blocked from buying Office Depot in 1997, said BB&T Capital Markets. Money-losing Office Depot of Boca Raton, Florida, hired interim Chief Executive Officer Neil Austrian in May after a seven-month search.

“Office Depot needs OfficeMax,” said Anthony Chukumba, an analyst with BB&T in New York. “They need to combine so they can scale up to better compete with Staples. For them to bring in a guy who’s been on the board forever and who has been CEO twice before on an interim basis, that just smacked of them saying, ‘We’re going to try to sell the company.’”

Of course, the ex post expansion of Wal-Mart and others into this territory does not mean that the FTC or Judge Hogan were wrong ex ante.  Indeed, the strength of the economic evidence in the case suggested that entry would be difficult — and indeed, perhaps it was.  Nonetheless, a merger of the the second and third largest office superstores is surely to attract some attention at the agencies.  Indeed, it may well be the case that the sale of consumable office supplies through office superstores in no longer a relevant antitrust product market.  However, the markets have changed in ways other than the emergence of significant pricing discipline from Wal-Mart and others.  The story notes that Office Depot’s market value has decreased by over $10,3 billion ($2.3 billion for OfficeMax since June 2006).

Given the growth of Wal-Mart and others, I suspect that even a replay of the Staples-Office Depot transaction of the late 1990s would have a significantly better chance of approval today than it did then.  Those in the industry appear to be expecting a merger announcement, but describe government approval as “certainly not a given.”  In any event, a Office Depot – Office Max merger will provide a good opportunity to go back and look at the predictions of the agencies at the time, to evaluate those predictions against the development of the market, and perhaps to learn something useful about competitive dynamics and entry in the retail sector.

Posted in antitrust, economics, federal trade commission, merger guidelines, mergers & acquisitions | 1 Comment »

A New Chief Economist at the FCC

Posted by Josh Wright on June 8, 2011

Its a Bruin.  Marius Schwartz will replace Jonathan Baker as the new Chief Economist at the FCC.  From the press release:

Schwartz’s teaching and research specialties are in industrial organization, competition and regulation. Before joining Georgetown University, Schwartz served as Economics Director of Enforcement at the Antitrust Division of the U.S. Department of Justice and as Acting Deputy Assistant Attorney General for Economics. He also served the President’s Council of Economic Advisers as the Senior Economist for industrial organization matters. Schwartz holds a B.Sc. degree from the London School of Economics and
a Ph.D. from UCLA, also in economics.

Casebook co-author, and previous TOTM contributor (see, e.g. here) Jonathan Baker will be heading back to American University.  However, the press release also notes that both Baker and Gregory Rosston will work on the AT&T – T-Mobile deal:

Outgoing Chief Economist Jonathan Baker and Gregory Rosston will both serve as Senior Economists for Transactions to work on the Commission’s reviews of the AT&T-T-Mobile and AT&T-Qualcomm transactions.

The Rosston appointment is interesting for those following the AT&T deal (more TOTM commentary here and here; my testimony is available here) because Rosston (with Roger Noll) has already publicly opined rather strongly on the merger.  In the short note, Rosston & Noll write that “the justifications for the acquisition do not seem particularly strong, and anticompetitive effects appear to be plausible,” and that “Superficially, the proposed acquisition appears to run seriously afoul of the merger policy of the antitrust enforcement agencies.”

Congratulations to Professor Schwartz, and to outgoing Chief Economist Baker.

Posted in antitrust, economics, federal communications commission, mergers & acquisitions, wireless | Comments Off

Sprint’s (Ironic?) Campaign for Competition

Posted by Thom Lambert on May 31, 2011

Sprint, perhaps the most vigorous opponent of the proposed AT&T/T-Mobile merger, has been extolling the values of competition lately.  Last Thursday and again today, the company ran full-page ads in the Wall Street Journal featuring the following text (which was apparently penned by Helen Steiner Rice):

Competition is everything.

Competition is the steady hand at our back, pushing us to faster, better, smarter, simpler, lighter, thinner, cooler.

Competition is the fraternal twin of innovation.

And innovation led us to offer America’s first 4G phone, first unlimited 4G plan, first all-digital voice network, first nationwide 3G network, and first 4G network from a national carrier.

All of which, somewhat ironically, led our competition to follow.

Competition is American.  Competition plays fair.

Competition keeps us all from returning to a Ma Bell-like, sorry-but-you-have-no-choice past.

Competition is the father of rapid progress and better value.

Competition inspires us to think about the future, which inspires us to think about the world, which inspires us to think about the planet, which inspired us to become the greenest company among wireless carriers.

Competition has many friends, but its very best is the consumer.

Competition has many believers, and we are among them.

Competition brings out our best, and gives it to you.

Sprint — All. Together. Now

The current ad is a bit more artful, though less amusing, than Sprint’s last print ad (scroll down), which was quickly pulled after it raised the ire of the (hyper-sensitive) transgender community.  That ad addressed the AT&T/T-Mobile merger more directly, stating that “the deal is bad for consumers who would see higher prices, less innovation, and two companies controlling 80 percent of wireless revenue.”

Now I’m all for competition, undoubtedly the best regulator out there, but I’m suspicious of Sprint’s claim that its opposition to the AT&T/T-Mobile merger is based on a desire to ensure vigorous competition.  Sprint, you see, benefits if the proposed merger leads to the predicted parade of horribles.  Higher prices occasioned by a Verizon/AT&T “duopoly” (Sprint’s term) means Sprint can charge more for its services or win business from the “duopolists” by underpricing them.  If the duopolists get fat and lazy and slow their innovation, as Sprint predicts, Sprint won’t have to work as hard to attract customers.  In short, most of the purportedly anti-consumer aspects of the AT&T/T-Mobile deal are pro-Sprint.

Why, then, is the company fighting this merger so vigorously?  Well, there are a couple of possibilities.  One is that Sprint is concerned that the merged AT&T/T-Mobile will be particularly good at offering customers product/service/price combinations that they find attractive.  If that’s the case, then Sprint is ultimately worried that the deal will enhance, not reduce, competition.  Alternatively, Sprint may be worried that an AT&T/T-Mobile combination will reduce competition in the sale of inputs needed to provide wireless service, making it more difficult for Sprint to access the facilities it needs to do its business.  That might be a genuine anticompetitive harm from the merger.

Sprint would do well to clarify its complaint.  When it lauds the value of competition generally and complains about things like higher consumer prices and reduced innovation (effects from which it would benefit), it loses credibility.  Give it to us straight, Sprint.

(Josh’s much more sophisticated thoughts on the proposed merger are here.)

Posted in antitrust, economics, law and economics, markets, mergers & acquisitions, wireless | 3 Comments »

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