Truth on the Market

Academic commentary on law, business, economics and more

Archive for the ‘international trade’ Category

International Antitrust Explosion in the FT

Posted by Josh Wright on August 6, 2008

Financial Times (HT: Danny Sokol) highlights the problem of multi-jurisdictional antitrust enforcement, emphasizing the rise of India and China.  The article repeats the basic point, worth repeating, that international cooperation can help avoid bad outcomes with multiple regulatory stakeholders with different incentives and institutional environments:

That is not a criticism of the new competition rules in either country – both are modernising laws on which the legal profession has been consulted. If enforced both promptly and evenhandedly, strong antitrust laws will mark a step towards competitive capitalism, rather than crony capitalism, in both countries. Local consumers will benefit. 

On international deals, however, China and India (and the US and European Commission) should leave mergers to the one jurisdiction best placed to handle them. If a merged company would have $200m sales and a 5 per cent market share in India, but $10bn sales and a 30 per cent share in the US, it is obvious who should take the lead. A forum to co-ordinate regulators – the International Competition Network – already exists. China should join it.

I’m pleased to see the FT calling attention to this issue.   Its an important one.  Perhaps one the most important on the antitrust enforcement policy landscape.  Joining the ICN and the international antitrust community more broadly is one way to generate cooperation and avoid bad outcomes.  But count me a skeptic with respect to the proposition that assigning jurisdiction to the competition policy agency with the greatest dollar value interest in the activity at issue will solve the problem.  The problem of mitigating the costs of multiple international competition agencies is a complex one with a lot of moving parts (Chairman Kovacic’s recent speech is a must-read on these issues).

I’ve argued previously that the policy discussion ought not emphasize “convergence or divergence per se, but jurisdictional competition combined with facilitation of superior substantive analytical norms.”  In other words, lets talk about getting optimal substantive standard adopted, say what we mean when we use code words like “convergence” (e.g. in the U.S. this appears to mean, movement to the standards adopted by our courts, and in particular, the Supreme Court), and respectfully but firmly and consistently hold competition agencies accountable for their decisions and enforcement philosophies.  This means that there is a lot of work to be done by economists and lawyers in figuring out the competitive effects of various forms of conduct, both in theory and testing these theories with data, in order to come to some sort of agreement about the design of optimal standards with sensitivity to important institutional differences between countries.

To be sure, jurisdictions will disagree about the state of the evidence of strength of opposing theories.  Differences in legal institutions and history will also drive divergence.   The optimal level of divergence is not zero.  But the substantial current level of divergence, in my view, could be reduced to the benefit of consumers with international agreement on a few important and (to my mind at least) not-so-controversial principles, e.g. the adoption of the error-cost framework as an appropriate lens through which to evaluate optimal antitrust rules.  The ICN and the international antitrust community can and do make substantial efforts to instigate this type of discussion and so must be, along with other institutions which facilitate cooperation, part of the solution.  But my sense is that the current debates focus too little on the actual state of economic theory and evidence and too much on everything else.

Posted in antitrust, business, economics, international politics, international trade, regulation | Comments Off

EU/US Convergence in Competition Policy

Posted by Josh Wright on June 8, 2008

FTC Chairman William Kovacic, easily one of the most insightful thinkers and writers on issues of global competition policy, has posted a new paper offering a thoughtful analysis of where the EU and US competition policy systems have been, where they are going, what institutional differences might cause the systems to converge or diverge further, and what to do about it. Kovacic notes that while “the apparent agreement on overall objectives would seem to be, and is, an important step toward achieving convergence between the two systems” it is important not to avoid frank discussions of what both US and EU officials mean when they invoke the concept of “consumer welfare” or “protecting competition, not competitors” precisely because these phrases can “are so open-ended that their true meaning in practice depends on how they are applied.” Kovacic goes on to discuss various institutional forces favoring both convergence and divergence and offering some suggestions for facilitating the adoption of superior norms. The paper is a must-read for anybody interested in global competition issues.

In other events on the “convergence” landscape, I recently attended a conference at Stanford (sponsored by SIEPR, Stanford Law School and Hoover) on the Modernization of Antitrust Law-Private and Public Enforcement and Abuses – Europe and the US where I spoke on a panel discussing issues of transatlantic convergence (and lack thereof) with respect to single firm conduct and abuse of dominance (sorry, I can’t find an online version of the agenda to link to). I must admit that I typically find discussions of the “convergence issue” in competition policy underwhelming as they seem to systematically resort to the types of open-ended and meaningless slogans Kovacic discusses in his paper, avoiding a frank and rigorous assessment of the true costs and benefits of both convergence and divergence of competition systems. However, I’m very pleased to report that the SIEPR conference panel discussing these issues (which was moderated by Roger Noll and including presentations by Tim Bresnahan (Stanford economics) and Matthew Bennett (OFT) and comments from Michael Topper and myself) surpassed my expectations (largely due to the quality of exchange between presenters, discussants and the audience in the open Q&A session).

For what its worth, my brief comments emphasized: (1) carefully distinguishing between convergence at the agency and court level, (2) sensitivity to the relationship between institutional design and convergence/ divergence, and (3) a possibility not frequently discussed in the convergence literature on single firm conduct policies in the EU and US: that the US policies will look more like the EU and not the other way around. On the third point, one would be hard pressed to find an invocation of the benefits of convergence by a U.S. commentator or agency official that does not implicitly assume that convergence means Article 82 looks more like Section 2 in the future. While there are other recent examples available that also threaten this possibility, I discussed recent U.S. antitrust enforcement in the standard setting context as an example of an area where this sort of “reverse” convergence might be occurring. The lesson, of course, is of the “be careful what you wish for” variety. The appropriate focus should not be convergence or divergence per se, but jurisdictional competition combined with facilitation of superior substantive analytical norms.

Posted in antitrust, economics, federal trade commission, international politics, international trade, regulation | Comments Off

Hofstra Foreign Exchange Symposium

Posted by Thom Lambert on January 7, 2008

My former co-clerk (now Hofstra Law prof) Ron Colombo asked that I pass along information on an upcoming symposium at Hofstra Law School. The symposium, Regulation of Currency Exchange and Its Impact on International Business, will be held at Hofstra on February 8. The keynote speaker will be Walter Lukken, Acting Chairman of the CFTC. Three panels are planned:

Is the depreciating dollar good for the U.S. economy? Is it good for the World’s economy? Are there policy or intervention initiatives that the governments and central banks are undertaking or coordinating?

FOREX Regulations in the New Millennium: the impact of Zelener and recent OTC retail FOREX regulations, and the protection of customer funds.

Will the pricing and hedging strategies for individual firms be affected by the declining dollar and the legal implications thereof?

More information and a link to register is here.

Ron tells me there may still be a limited number of openings for papers and presentations. Anyone interested in presenting should contact the editor-in-chief of the Journal of International Business and Law, sponsor of the event. The editor is Paul Sudentas — Phone: (516) 463-6188, E-mail: psuden1@pride.hofstra.edu.

Posted in announcements, business, international trade, law school, markets | Comments Off

Antitrust Activity and Distinguishing Influence from Quality

Posted by Josh Wright on October 28, 2007

From the Economic Times:

The European Union’s antitrust agency is becoming more influential just as its US counterparts have grown more cautious and inactive, experts say. The European Commission’s recent success in forcing Microsoft to carry out antitrust sanctions underscores the differences, and academic researchers say the US is also hanging back in merger challenges. That makes Brussels, more than Washington, the place where companies must go to get their deal through and where companies must ready themselves against possible antitrust action. It also means competition agencies around the world look to Brussels.

“Influential” v. “cautious” and “inactive.” I get it. The implication is that EU antitrust enforcement is good and US enforcement is bad. The proof? One is allegedly more interventionist than the other. As a general matter, I do not find “more is better” arguments (see, e.g., here) causally linking agency activity to the quality of antitrust policy to be very persuasive. All of these claims should be taken with a grain of salt or two. It is one thing to make observations about trends in public antitrust enforcement over time. This exercise can be quite useful for addressing a number of questions or motivating a discussion of various issues. For example, the news item excerpted above cites to Baker & Shapiro’s recent article on merger enforcement which provides some evidence that federal merger enforcement is down (largely at the DOJ) and that private practitioners have noticed. Baker & Shapiro use this empirical observation as a jumping off point to discuss the structural presumption, burdens of production and persuasion, and to offer a critique of some recent decisions which (in their view) too readily accept entry and expansion defenses.

All of this can be quite productive in terms of generating dialogue concerning potential improvements in antitrust policy. However, it is quite another thing to assert that such data are capable of establishing a causal link between enforcement activity level and the “quality” of antitrust enforcement and/or consumer welfare. I should be incredibly clear here: I do not read Baker & Shapiro to be claiming to have demonstrated such a link empirically (though it is clear from the article that they believe more enforcement would be a good thing) and am not making this point in response to their article. Rather, I am responding to appeals to evidence on activity levels alone to suggest that “more” or “less” enforcement would bring about positive changes for consumers. Maybe such a link would be useful if we were talking about dramatic changes in the rate of enforcement (say, abruptly plummeting to zero or increasing tenfold).

But one should be very cautious about making inferences about consumer welfare from small changes in aggregate enforcement data or anecdotal evidence from a handful of cases. I offer this word of caution in the spirit of the current season when these types of claims are quite popular with the politicians and journalists: while it may be true that the most active antitrust agency is the most influential for a number of reasons, there is simply no theoretical or empirical basis to suggest that the most active agency produces the greatest benefits for consumers.

Posted in antitrust, international politics, international trade, mergers & acquisitions | 4 Comments »

Teson and Klick on Global Justice and Trade

Posted by Josh Wright on October 26, 2007

Larry Solum points to Fernando Teson and Jonathan Klick’s (both of FSU College of Law) Global Justice and Trade: A Puzzling Omission.  It is a thoughtful and provocative paper.  Teson and Klick motivate the paper as an attempt to address the failure of philosophers and human rights scholars not to advocate free trade as a way to improve the welfare of the poor.  But as this excerpt from the end of the abstract suggests, the paper is more ambitious than that:

It is surprising then that philosophers and human rights scholars do not advocate liberalizing trade as a way to improve the welfare of the poor as a class. While many scholars in these fields are silent with respect to the effect of free trade on the poor, some actually argue that liberalized trade is harmful for the poor, contrary to the claims of economists. In this article, we argue that any serious scholar concerned with the plight of the poor needs to address the theory and evidence regarding the effects of trade liberalization on economic growth, suggesting that the standard policy prescriptions of the philosophers and human rights scholars are, at best, of second order concern and, at worst, likely to be counterproductive in terms of improving the welfare of the poor.

Some preliminary reactions to the paper appear below the fold.

Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in economics, international politics, international trade, legal scholarship, markets | Comments Off

Goolsbee (and Obama?) on Free Trade

Posted by Josh Wright on October 8, 2007

Here is Senator Obama’s economic advisor Austan Goolsbee on globalization and free trade (as described by George Will in his recent column):

“Globalization” means free trade and various deregulations that supposedly put downward pressure on American wages because of imports from low-wage countries. Goolsbee, however, says globalization is responsible for “a small fraction” of today’s income disparities. He says “60 to 70 percent of the economy faces virtually no international competition.” America’s 18.5 million government employees have little to fear from free trade; neither do auto mechanics, dentists and many others.

Goolsbee’s rough estimate is that technology — meaning all that the phrase “information economy” denotes — accounts for more than 80 percent of the increase in earnings disparities, whereas trade accounts for much less than 20 percent. This is something congressional Democrats need to hear from a Democratic economist as they resist trade agreements with South Korea and such minor economic powers as Peru, Panama and Colombia.

While I was less impressed with Obama’s statement on antitrust policy, and his previous attack on Wal-Mart as competitive problem, this statement from Obama’s top economic advisor seems much more sensible. Of course, one could argue there is not much here to get excited about since this is really Goolsbee talking and not Obama. But while I’m happy to cosign Greg Mankiw’s argument that the economist-as-advisor should not be responsible for all positions that the advised takes, in my view it is also sensible to give credit where it is due to the candidate for any benefits associated with selecting good economic advisors. And yes, I realize I’ve painted myself into a position here where economists are essentially only responsible for the economic policy advice that he or she gives and not much else.

As a side note, and as Jon Adler notes at the Volokh Conspiracy, Goolsbee’s position on free trade is light years ahead of Republican candidate Mike Huckabee’s rather ridiculous statement that a country is not free unless it is able to produce “its own food, its own fuel, and its own fighting apparatus.”

Posted in economics, international politics, international trade, politics | 3 Comments »

The most embarrassing thing Joe Stiglitz ever wrote?

Posted by Geoffrey Manne on September 30, 2007

In case you haven’t already, I recommend taking a gander at today’s New York Time Book Review.  In it, there is a review of Naomi Klein’s new book, The Shock Doctrine, by Nobel-winning economist, Joe Stiglitz.  It’s an abomination (I’m sure the book is an abomination, too, but I’m referring to the book review). 

If you know anything about Klein you know that she is an ideological zealot, impervious to facts and reason (although I’m sure some would say the same of me.  Except in her case, it’s actually true).  I’m sure she’s well-meaning and all that, but her book No Logo (yes, I have read it), and now this book, as well (judging only by the reviews–I won’t make the mistake of reading more than one Naomi Klein book), reflect an ignorance of economics, markets and politics that can be born only of utter disdain.  I won’t belabor the point. 

But what’s truly embarrassing is that an economist of Joe Stiglitz’s stature would write an utterly fawning review of her book!  I didn’t know that Stiglitz had slipped as far as Paul Krugman into the land of the “formerly-great-now-blinded-by ideology-to-all-reason” but I can only conclude now that he has.  There is not a single word of criticism in this review.  Not one.  At one point he does note that “she’s not an economist but a journalist,” and he similarly says that she “is not an academic and cannot be judged as one.”  But one gets the powerful sense that these are actually compliments!  Rather than follow these statements by noting one or two errors of, say, oversimplification, omission or confusion (of the sort inexcusable, I guess, by an academic or an economist), he follows them with praise for her tenacity and perspicacity as a journalist and he excuses her oversimplification (apparently there is some in the book (shocking!), but Stiglitz can’t be bothered to hold Klein’s shortcomings up to the light) by claiming that her academic targets–Milton Friedman and his ilk–were guilty of oversimplification, too.  Nya, nya!  I’m rubber and you’re glue, whatever bad you say bounces off me and sticks to . . . economists I disagree with!  It’s very illuminating (but not at all in the way one might want to be illuminated by a book review.  But then I guess most reviews are more about the reviewer than the subject, right?).

And, of course, there is the obligatory, barely disguised self-promotion (remember that part about reviews really being about the reviewer).  Just read this paragraph:

Klein is not an academic and cannot be judged as one. There are many places in her book where she oversimplifies. But Friedman and the other shock therapists were also guilty of oversimplification, basing their belief in the perfection of market economies on models that assumed perfect information, perfect competition, perfect risk markets. Indeed, the case against these policies is even stronger than the one Klein makes. They were never based on solid empirical and theoretical foundations, and even as many of these policies were being pushed, academic economists were explaining the limitations of markets — for instance, whenever information is imperfect, which is to say always.

Now which academic economists were doing all this explaining about imperfect information, Joe?  I can’t recall.  Anyway, even the claims he generously makes here on Naomi’s behalf are themselves untenable oversimplifications.  Please, do show me where Friedman believes that ideas can be implemented in a frictionless world?  The claim that Friedman’s models employed simplifying assumptions is true.  But, then, that’s the point of models, even the ones Stiglitz uses.  They are called “models” not “complete, messy representations of reality.”  The implication that Friedman’s assumptions, because they were simplifications, led to results with no relevance is a claim only a journalist or a non-academic would make.   I commend one of Friedman’s most important works–The Methodology of Positive Economics–to Stiglitz’s attention.  He shouldn’t find it too troubling to read–it doesn’t even mention free markets or Ronald Reagan.  Here’s just one important bit:

A theory or its “assumptions” cannot possibly be thoroughly “realistic” in the immediate descriptive sense so often assigned to this term. A completely “realistic” theory of the wheat market would have to include not only the conditions directly underlying the supply and demand for wheat but also the kind of coins or credit instruments used to make exchanges; the personal characteristics of wheat-traders such as the colour of each trader’s hair and eyes, his antecedents and education, the number of members of his family, their characteristics, antecedents, and education, etc.; the kind of soil on which the wheat was grown, its physical and chemical characteristics, the weather prevailing during the growing season; the personal characteristics of the farmers growing the wheat and of the consumers who will ultimately use it; and so on indefinitely. Any attempt to move very far in achieving this kind of “realism” is certain to render a theory utterly useless.

Most important, however, what Friedman knew and what Stiglitz and Klein utterly ignore is that world is a messy place, and implementation of even the best academic ideas must be undertaken with appropriate expectations about the limitations of the institutions doing the implementing.  The only oversimplification here is the one (propounded by Klein, who is an ardent activist, and Stiglitz, who has no excuse) that says that because markets don’t always work perfectly, government solutions are better.  If you read Stiglitz’s review, you’ll see that all of Klein’s examples have one thing in common:  The only alternatives to the actions she abhors are ones entailing more government “solutions” to the endemic problems of the market. 

But the best part is that the refutation of her (and Joe’s) philosophy jumps off every page of her books.  For the common element in each of the actions she decries (Bush taking advantage of misery in Iraq to impose capitalism; the Sri Lankan government displacing poor fishermen in the wake of the 2004 tsunami, etc.) is that the evil being perpetrated, even by her own standards, is being perpetrated by the government!  I know enough about Klein from her other book to know that the irony of this is completely lost on her.  While advocating tirelessly for various forms of government solutions to the evils of capitalism run amok, it is completely lost on her that all of her alleged examples of such run-amokery are perpetrated by . . . governments.  I’m sure she and Joe believe that if only the right governments were in charge, then none of this would happen and the world would be a shiny, happy place.  The naiveté in that is thick.  Again, excusable for an anti-globalization hack like Klein; a bit jarring for a Nobel Prize winner like Stiglitz.

But enough ranting.  There are more important things to do.  I’ll leave you with just this:

I’ve included a longer excerpt from Friedman below the fold.  It contains not only the above bit about the usefulness of simplifying assumptions, but also a nice refutation of the specific claims Stiglitz makes about the irrelevance of models assuming perfect competition.  Frankly this may be the most embarrassing part:  That Stiglitz would make the claims he does in full knowledge that the very person he tries to tar with irrelevance had long ago penned his own clarification (and refutation) of precisely this point.  As I said, it’s an abomination.

Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in economics, international politics, international trade, journalism, politics | 11 Comments »

Here We Go Again? The Transatlantic Fireworks over Microsoft Begin …

Posted by Josh Wright on September 19, 2007

EU Competition Commissioner Neelie Kroes responds to the USDOJ Antitrust AG’s criticism of the recent Microsoft decision:

“It is totally unacceptable that a representative of the U.S. administration criticized an independent court of law outside its jurisdiction … The European Commission does not pass judgment on rulings by U.S. courts, and we expect the same degree of respect.”

While it is relatively novel so far as I know, I can’t say I’m too bothered by the DOJ commenting on a ruling of an EU court outside its jurisdiction. The missions of both U.S. antitrust agencies have traditionally included some level of advocacy. The implications of foreign antitrust enforcement may certainly be felt by American consumers, and this is especially the case where the foreign standard is significantly more restrictive than the domestic one. There is no doubt that antitrust counsel to U.S. firms operating in Europe will be forced to reckon with this decision. Open dialogue about the merits of these competing standards, including U.S. standards of course, seems like a good idea to me.

UPDATE: Danny Sokol also fears that the Microsoft judgment will strain U.S.-E.U. relations.   Hanno Kaiser reacts more favorably to the Microsoft decision, describing it as “a tributary of the US case” that “completes or at least complements the original DOJ case against Microsoft.”

Posted in antitrust, international politics, international trade, regulation | 1 Comment »

China's Anti-Monopoly Law

Posted by Josh Wright on August 30, 2007

The August 24th draft is available in Chinese and English here.  HT: Danny Sokol.

Posted in antitrust, international trade, law school, markets, regulation | Comments Off

Wal-Mart: Alleviating Poverty Abroad, Lowering Prices at Home

Posted by Thom Lambert on October 17, 2006

Those of us who defend the right to outsource are frequently criticized for lacking compassion and for being concerned only with the bottom line. I’ll admit that profitability concerns generally motivate decisions to outsource (and most other business decisions), but I won’t concede that outsourcing imposes a net harm on the economically disadvantaged. If we’re really concerned with alleviating the worst instances of poverty and are not focused only on protecting our own kind, we should support the right to outsource.

John Tierney makes this point in today’s NYT. Echoing comments of Michael Strong, the head of “a nonprofit group promoting entrepreneurship abroad,” Tierney observes that the evilest outsourcer of them all — Wal-Mart — can rightly claim to have done more than just about anyone else to alleviate the suffering of the poor:

Making toys or shoes for Wal-Mart in a Chinese or Latin American factory may sound like hell to American college students — and some factories should treat their workers much better, as Strong readily concedes. But there are good reasons that villagers will move hundreds of miles for a job.

Most “sweatshop� jobs — even ones paying just $2 per day — provide enough to lift a worker above the poverty level, and often far above it, according to a study of 10 Asian and Latin American countries by Benjamin Powell and David Skarbek. In Honduras, the economists note, the average apparel worker makes $13 a day, while nearly half the population makes less than $2 a day.

[NOTE: Powell and Skarbek discuss their study here.]

This is not to say, of course, that there are no “victims” of outsourcing. Some Americans lose their jobs. Others find they can’t command as much for their services because of cheap foreign labor.

Yet, that cheap foreign labor produces benefits at home — lower prices. Moreover, Wal-Mart’s job offerings are routinely oversubscribed (there are typically around ten applicants per open position — sometimes many more), suggesting that lots of workers think the jobs aren’t that bad.

This is not enough for many Wal-Mart critics, who maintain that consumer savings don’t justify the economic dislocation caused by Wal-Mart’s cost-cutting and, as Tierney explains, would “rather see Wal-Mart and other retailers paying higher wages to their employees, and selling more products made by Americans instead of foreigners.”

That position, though, is ethically suspect. In Tierney’s words:

[T]his argument makes moral sense only if your overriding concern is saving the jobs and protecting the salaries of American workers who are already far better off than most of the planet’s population. If you’re committed to Bono’s vision of “making poverty history,� shouldn’t you take a less parochial view? Shouldn’t you be more worried about villagers overseas subsisting on a dollar a day?

Indeed.

Posted in business, economics, international trade, markets | 4 Comments »

 
Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 1,034 other followers