Archives For entrepreneurship

Richard Epstein replies to Judge Posner’s Apple v. Motorola opinion and follow-up article in The Atlantic.

The anti-patent sentiment has just been fueled by a remarkable opinion by Judge Richard Posner, my long-time colleague at the University of Chicago, sitting as a trial judge in the major case, Apple v. Motorola. The high-profile case concerns five patents—four by Apple and one by Motorola—that are involved in mobile phone technology, and it has drawn more than its fair share of attention. Judge Posner took the extraordinary step of dismissing the claims of both sides with prejudice—meaning, the case cannot be filed again elsewhere—on the grounds that neither side could make good on its argument for either damages or injunctions.

Thus, when the dust settled, there was no reason at all to have a trial on whether either side had infringed the patents of the other. In a subsequent piece written for The Atlantic, grandly entitled “Why There are Too Many Patents in America,” Posner delivered a general critique of the patent system, discussing the broader issues involved in his judicial decision.

There is much of interest, as always, in Epstein’s column.  But the closing section on damages and injunctions is where the action is:

What is so striking about Posner’s relentless dissection of the imprecision in these claims was that he could apply it with equal conviction in any patent software dispute. The estimates of damages under the law are not confined to a single standard, but often involve an uncertain choice between reasonable royalties for licensing the patent and actual damages that were incurred because the patents were not licensed. The injunctive relief is (or at least should be) awarded precisely because it is so difficult to figure out what those damages really ought to be.

But Posner said that he would not allow an injunction if the best that the plaintiffs could garner was $1 in nominal damages. That surely seems over the top, because if there is infringement, the one number that is manifestly wrong is $1. A more sensible approach here, therefore, is to mix and marry the two remedies, so that the injunction does not pull the past product off the market, but awards some damages for past losses, while giving the infringer some period of time—say three to six months—to invent around the patent for future output. This then sets the stage for a negotiated license if that is cheaper.

By putting the remedial cart before the liability horse, we have the odd situation that no one can find out anything about the strength of the patent or the potential range of damages. If that is done on a common basis, then we will have knocked out the entire patent system for software, without having the slightest idea of the relative strength of the Apple and Motorola contentions.

The Posner decision looks doubly worrisome against the backdrop of his ominous Atlantic column, which shows his ill-concealed disdain for a complex industry with which he has had no direct engagement. It is an odd way to make patent policy. Right now, a similar Apple-Samsung dispute is before Judge Lucy Koh, which will involve a real trial. The Posner opinion is already on the fast track to appeal before the Federal Circuit, which will give us more information as to whether these submarine assaults on the patent system will take hold. Let us hope that Posner’s mysterious patent adventurism dies a quick and deserved death.

Do go read the whole thing.  For interested readers, here is Posner’s Atlantic column.

Judge Douglas Ginsburg (D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals; NYU Law) and I have posted “Dynamic Antitrust and the Limits of Antitrust Institutions” to SSRN.  Our article is forthcoming in Volume 78 (2) of the Antitrust Law Journal.  We offer a cautionary note – from an institutional perspective – concerning the ever-increasing and influential calls for greater incorporation of models of dynamic competition and innovation into antitrust analysis by courts and agencies.

Here is the abstract:

The static model of competition, which dominates modern antitrust analysis, has served antitrust law well.  Nonetheless, as commentators have observed, the static model ignores the impact that competitive (or anti-competitive) activities undertaken today will have upon future market conditions.  An increased focus upon dynamic competition surely has the potential to improve antitrust analysis and, thus, to benefit consumers.  The practical value of proposals to increase the use of dynamic analysis must, however, be evaluated with an eye to the institutional limitations that antitrust agencies and courts face when engaged in predictive fact-finding.  We explain and evaluate both the current state of dynamic antitrust analysis and some recent proposals that agencies and courts incorporate dynamic considerations more deeply into their analyses.  We show antitrust analysis is not willfully ignorant of the limitations of static analysis; on the contrary, when reasonably confident predictions can be made, they are readily incorporated into the analysis.  We also argue agencies and courts should view current proposals for a more dynamic approach with caution because the theories underpinning those proposals lie outside the agencies’ expertise in industrial organization economics, do not consistently yield determinate results, and would place significant demands upon reviewing courts to question predictions based upon those theories.  Considering the current state of economic theory and empirical knowledge, we conclude that competition agencies and courts have appropriately refrained from incorporating dynamic features into antitrust analysis to make predictions beyond what can be supported by a fact-intensive analysis.

You can download the paper here.

Hating Capitalism

Paul H. Rubin —  13 May 2012

One topic that has long interested me is the source of dislike or hatred of capitalism; my Southern Economics Journal article “Folk Economics” (ungated version)  dealt in part with this topic. Today’s New York Times has an op-ed, “Capitalists and Other Psychopaths” by William Deresiewicz, who has taught English at Yale and Columbia, that both illustrates and explains this hatred.  What is interesting about this column is that it is entirely about the character and behavior of “the rich” including entrepreneurs.  The job creating function of business is briefly mentioned but most of the article focuses on “fraud, tax evasion, toxic dumping, product safety violations, bid rigging, overbilling, perjury.”

What is nowhere mentioned is anything to do with the goods and services produced by business.  This is a common attitude of critics of capitalism.  In many cases, capitalists may suffer the same personality defects as the rest of us.  And, as Mr. Deresiewicz points out, scientists, artists and scholars may also be hard working and smart.  But capitalism does not reward moral worth or hard work.  Capitalism rewards providing stuff  that other people are willing to pay for.  While is is easy to point out the stupidity of the critique (Mr. Deresiewicz has written and seems proud of his book, published by a capitalist publisher and available from various capitalist booksellers) that is not my point.  Rather, this column is interesting in that it is a pristine example of a totally irrelevant critique of capitalism, written by what is a smart person.  He does cite Adam Smith, but seems to misunderstand the basic functioning of markets.  Markets reward what one does, not what one is.

Ritter, Gao and Zhu ask, Where have all the IPOs Gone?  Well, not to young men everywhere, but to the older men and women who run the big companies that have replaced public markets as the key venture capital exit. Here’s the abstract:

During 1980-2000, an average of 311 companies per year went public in the U.S. Since the technology bubble burst in 2000, the average has been only 102 initial public offerings (IPOs) per year, with the drop especially precipitous among small firms. Many have blamed the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 and the 2003 Global Settlement’s effects on analyst coverage for the decline in U.S. IPO activity. We offer an alternative explanation. We posit that the advantages of selling out to a larger organization, which can speed a product to market and realize economies of scope, have increased relative to the benefits of remaining as an independent firm. Consistent with this hypothesis, we document that there has been a decline in the profitability of small company IPOs, and that small company IPOs have provided public market investors with low returns throughout the last three decades. Venture capitalists have been increasingly exiting their investments with trade sales rather than IPOs, and an increasing fraction of firms that have gone public have been involved in acquisitions. Our analysis suggests that IPO volume will not return to the levels of the 1980s and 1990s even with regulatory changes.

Why has this happened?  The authors suggest that “there has been a structural change over time that has increased the profitability of large firms that can realize economies of scope, speed products to market, and realize economies of scale in information technology.” For example, Apple could “assign a veritable army of engineers to rapidly implement new technologies into its consumer electronics products, such as the iPad, iPod, and iPhone. * * *No small independent company could implement new technology so rapidly and sell tens of millions of units to consumers in a matter of months.”

On the demand side, “the internet has made comparison shopping easier for consumers * * * Increased speed of communication thus leads to both a greater advantage from implementing new technology quickly, and a greater opportunity cost of waiting.”

If the authors are right, the future of innovation is mainly in large firms. (Not entirely:  the data doesn’t exclude the possibility of more Facebooks, Zyngas and Groupons.) Small firms might come up with the initial ideas, but big firms will become more influential in determining which ideas succeed. 

The question then becomes whether the structure of big firms will adapt to their new role by staying entrepreneurial and receptive to innovation. Big firms tend to get bureaucratized and complacent.  We have needed new blood to shake up the incumbents.  Big firms will have to offer decentralized decision-making and innovative compensation policies (insider trading?). 

Here is where deregulation could be useful:  not in determining the number of IPOs, but in letting today’s big firms offer the incentive structures and flexibility that enabled them to grow up to be what they are today.

Welcome Baby 7B!

Thom Lambert —  31 October 2011

According to the United Nations, sometime around Halloween a newborn baby will push the world’s population above seven billion people.  Welcome to our spectacular planet, Little One!

I should warn you that not everyone will greet your arrival as enthusiastically as I.  A great many smart folks on our planet—especially highly educated people in rich countries like my own—have fallen under the spell of this fellow named Malthus, who once warned that our planet was “overpopulated.”  Although Mr. Malthus’s ideas have been proven wrong time and again, his smart and influential disciples keep insisting that your arrival spells disaster, that this lonely planet just can’t support you. 

Now my own suspicion is that modern day Malthusians, who are smart enough to know that actual events have discredited their leader’s theories, continue to parrot Mr. Malthus’s ideas because they lend support to all manner of governmental intervention into private affairs.  (These smarty-pants Malthusians, who are well-aware of their own intelligence, tend to think they can arrange things better than the “men and women on the spot” and are constantly looking for reasons to go meddling in others’ business!)  Whatever their motivation, Mr. Malthus’s disciples just won’t shut up about how our planet is overpopulated.

You should know, though, that this simply isn’t true.  The first time you hear one of Mr. Malthus’s followers decrying your very existence by insisting that our planet is overpopulated, you should ask him or her:  “Overpopulated relative to what?”  Modern Malthusians can never give a good answer to that question, though they always try.

Sometimes they say “living space.”  But that’s plain silly.  Our planet is really pretty huge.  Indeed, if all seven billion people on the planet moved to the state ofAlaska, each person would have 2,300 square feet of living space!  Now I realize lots of cities get crowded, but that’s because people choose to live in those areas—they’ve decided that the benefits of enhanced economic opportunity in a densely populated area outweigh the costs of close confines.  If they really wanted extra living space, they could easily find it in our planet’s vast uninhabited (or sparsely inhabited) regions.

Sometimes modern day Malthusians say the planet is overpopulated relative to available food.  Wrong again.  In the nations of the world where institutions have evolved to allow people to profit from coming up with new ideas that enhance welfare, individuals have developed all sorts of ways to get more food from less land.  Accordingly, food production has always outpaced population growth.  Now, modern day Malthusians will probably tell you that food prices have been rising in recent years – a sign that food is getting scarcer relative to people’s demand for it.  But that’s because governments, beholden to powerful agricultural lobbyists, have been requiring that huge portions of agricultural output be diverted to fuel production even though the primary biofuel (ethanol) provides no environmental benefit.  As usual, it’s actually bad government policy, not population growth, that’s creating scarcity.

In recent days, Mr. Malthus’s disciples have insisted that the world is overpopulated relative to available resources.  Nothing new here.  Back in the 1970s, lots of smart folks contended that the earth was quickly running out of resources and that drastic measures were required to constrain continued population growth.  One of those smarty pants was Stanford University biologist Paul Ehrlich, who, along with his wife Anne and President Obama’s science czar John Holdren, asked (in all seriousness): “Why should the law not be able to prevent a person from having more than two children?”  (See Paul R. Ehrlich, Anne H. Ehrlich & John P. Holdren, Ecoscience 838 (1977).)  (Ehrlich also proclaimed, in his 1968 blockbuster The Population Bomb, that “The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now. At this late date nothing can prevent a substantial increase in the world death rate.”)

In 1980, Prof. Ehrlich bet economist Julian Simon (a jolly fellow who would have welcomed your birth!) that the booming population would raise demand for resources so much that prices would skyrocket.  Mr. Simon thought otherwise and therefore allowed Prof. Ehrlich to pick five metals whose price he believed would rise over the next decade.  As it turns out, the five metals Prof. Ehrlich selected — chromium, copper, nickel, tin, and tungsten – fell in price as clever, profit-seeking humans discovered both how to extract more from the earth and how to substitute other, cheaper substances.  Mr. Simon was not at all surprised.  He recognized that the long-term price trend of most resources points downward, indicating that resources are becoming more plentiful, relative to human needs, over time.  (Modern Malthusians may point to some recent price trends showing rising prices for some resources, especially precious metals.  It’s likely, though, that those price increases are due to the fact that central banks all over the world have been creating lots and lots of money, thereby threatening inflation and causing investors to hold their wealth in the form of commodities.)

The fundamental mistake Mr. Malthus’s disciples make, Little One, is to assume that our planet is the ultimate source of resources.  That’s just not true.  Our planet does contain lots of useful “stuff,” but it’s human ingenuity – something only you and those like you can provide – that turns that stuff into “resources.”  Take oil, for instance.  For most of human history, messy crude oil was a source of annoyance for landowners.  It polluted their water and fouled their property.  But when whale oil prices started to rise in response to scarcity (or, put differently, when the world started to look “overpopulated” relative to whale oil), some clever, profit-seeking folks discovered how to turn that annoyance into kerosene, and eventually petroleum.  Voila!  A “resource” was created!

Just as people once worried about overpopulation relative to whale oil supplies, lots of folks now worry about overpopulation relative to crude oil.  Well I’m not that worried, and you shouldn’t be either.  As oil prices rise, more and more clever profit-seekers will turn their energies toward finding new ways to obtain oil (e.g., hydraulic facturing), new techniques for reducing oil requirements (e.g., enhanced efficiency), and new substitutes for oil (e.g., alternative fuels).  Mr. Malthus’s disciples will continue to fret about the limits to growth, but the historical record is clear on this one:  Human ingenuity – the ultimate resource – always outpaces the diminution in useful “stuff.”

And so, Little Resource, your arrival on our planet should be celebrated, not scorned!  As you and your fellow newborns flex your creative muscle, you’ll develop new sources of wealth for the world.  As you do so, birth rates will plummet, as they typically do when societies become wealthier, and the demand for a cleaner environment, demand that rises with wealth, will grow.  We therefore need not worry about “overpopulation.”

We do, though, need to ensure the survival of those institutions – property rights, free markets, the rule of law – that encourage resource-creating innovation.  I, for one, promise to do my best to defend those institutions so that you and your fellow newborns can add to our planet’s resource base.

Another of Russ Roberts’ and John Papola’s brilliant “Keynes vs. Hayek” rap videos is now online.  (If you missed the first one, it’s here.)

Whereas the first video focused largely on monetary policy, this one looks mainly at fiscal policy.  Both are truly masterful.  I’m amazed that Roberts and Papola were able to incorporate so much of the substance of the debates into such short videos.  I’m also amazed at the resemblance between “John S. Papola, MD” (producer Papola’s father maybe?) and Ben Bernanke.  Uncanny.

Atlas Shrugged

Paul H. Rubin —  16 April 2011

Just saw Atlas Shrugged.  Very good — better than I thought.  Highly recommended.

Watching Obamacare dissolve in a morass of legal challenges and waivers points out another benefit of markets.   Markets proceed incrementally.  The Internet has made a huge difference in all of our lives.  But the process was gradual.  It began with just a few academic users and then expanded as entrepreneurs figured out next steps.  In 1990 no one planned today’s Internet; no one could have.  There were individual successes, some of which persisted (Amazon) and some of which succeeded for awhile and then failed (AOL).  But the whole thing is a mass of small steps that led to what we have today.  More small steps will lead to tomorrow’s Internet which will be something no one today can foresee.

Obamacare (and many other government efforts) is not incremental.  It is a 2000 page law trying to remake the entire medical system from the top down.  No such system can succeed.  No one can foresee the interactions of all of the parts that are part of this law.

Other proposals for reform — allow interstate sales of medical insurance, cap tax deductibility of insurance premiums — are incremental in nature.  Such proposals allow us to try a small step and see if it works and proceed from there.  We cannot forecast the results of these small steps, but we do not need to.  They are small and easy to reverse if they fail.  Moreover, they leave room for entrepreneurs to modify them in unpredictable ways.  If we allow interstate sales, which models will work best?  No one knows, but lots of people will try to figure it out and some of them will make lots of money and give us a better system.

The WSJ reports on the sad state of venture capital:

[F]und raising has now come to a near halt. Thomson Reuters estimates U.S. venture-capital funds raised just $1.9 billion in the second quarter. By comparison, in the same period of 2000, the peak year, funds raised $33 billion. In 2009, just 170 funds raised new money, compared with 749 in 2000. It isn’t just investors who are walking away. Many venture-capital money managers who joined the game after the ’90s have never had a big payday. A decade without performance fees is no incentive to keep digging for deals. * * *

This drought isn’t likely to end soon. The market for small-cap stocks has become less liquid as many regional investment banks that specialized in fledgling companies have shuttered. Sarbanes-Oxley reporting requirements have also added several million dollars to the annual cost of being listed, significant for firms on the cusp of profitability.

The WSJ notes that venture-backed firms’ “main exit route” is “selling to strategic buyers” – big companies like Google. But where will future Google-type wealth-creation engines come from? The article notes that “[w]ithout another big technological shift, innovation opportunities will likely be harder to find.” But who is going to drive innovation? Today’s bureaucracy-laden behemoths, growing ever larger by eating start-ups?

There are little specks of light. Green Dot, an innovator in prepaid debit-cards, is set to go public this week. I got to see the enthusiasm this sort of event generates in the startup community when I spoke to and attended a regional Tech Coast Angels event last week in Long Beach. TCA provided initial funding and encouragement for Green Dot.

The Green Dot offering is happening in part because Congress exempted Green Dot from onerous restrictions on interchange fees imposed by Dodd-Frank. Here are stories from Reuters and the WSJ.

Unfortunately, not all entrepreneurs have been able to escape increasing regulatory burdens on small firms. While Dodd-Frank exempts small-cap firms from the onerous internal controls attestations requirement, it imposes new governance burdens on public firms. And the vast bulk of SOX still hovers over public firms, imposing higher per-cap costs on smaller firms. Meanwhile, small firms will pay for Dodd-Frank’s other constraints on financing, such the collateral requirements for end-users of derivatives. All of these burdens bite especially hard in an economy which is generally not conducive to financing.

So the start-up drought, with its accompanying drag on employment and innovation, is likely to continue. We should be thankful for the green sprouts that Congress allows.