Truth on the Market

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Archive for January, 2009

Kevin Murphy models the stimulus–and the results aren't pretty

Posted by Geoffrey Manne on January 20, 2009

A great video from the University of Chicago here with comments from John Huizinga, Kevin Murphy and Robert Lucas. John Huizinga also wonders if we’re calculating the costs. Robert Lucas is skeptical.

But Kevin Murphy’s discussion is (not surprisingly) worth the price of admission (I only wish the video showed the slides). He puts some mathematical meat on the bones-answering my earlier question with a lot more variables than Krugman was able to muster.  His model itself raises a range of interesting and essential issues, seemingly glossed over by the stimulus fundamentalists (it’s their turn thusly to be tarred)–including (among others):

the relative inefficiency of government in allocating resources;

the conflict between stimulus and investment (between deploying underemployed resources and improving productivity);

the prospect of drawing otherwise productive resources into less-productive stimulus (Murphy: “You have to remember, even with 7% unemployment, 93% of the resources out there are being employed somewhere else. So when I try to draw things in, chances are I’m going to draw a lot of resources out of other activities.” (one might call this an error cost, but the Krugmans and DeLongs of the world don’t believe that governments can commit errors, unless led by Republicans, of course.));

the problem of diminished private savings (Ricardian equivalence);

the fact that even unemployed resources have value greater than zero (even unemployed people value their own time and reallocating otherwise-inefficiently employed resources to other sectors is a value);

deadweight cost of distortions from taxation.

At bottom, Murphy has this equation (I don’t know how to write Greek letters in WordPress, so bear with me):

f(1-L) > a+d

f = how much comes out of idle (as opposed to currently employed) resources

L (Lambda) = the value of idle resources (so 1-L is the gain from moving idle resources into production)

a = government inefficiency cost

d = deadweight loss

Iff the left-hand side is greater, the stimulus would be worthwhile

Murphy’s bottom line, given his parameters (f=.5, L=.5, a=positive, and d=.8):

Unless government is 55% more effective, more productive, than private output, it’s not looking good.

As Murphy notes, others like Christina Romer and Paul Krugman may believe that government is in fact much more efficient. I think the evidence is decidedly against them, but it is helpful to see what it comes down to. So what do you think?

Seems to me that Murphy has produced an enormously careful and valuable analysis of the sort that Krugman will dismiss as ideological, as he does with everyone who disagrees with him.  It is an embarrassment that Krugman (and not Murphy, et al.) has sway over the new US government and the intelligentsia (read: New York Times readers) that will enable the coming stimulus debacle.

UPDATE: O frabjous day, Callooh! Callay!–Murphy’s slides are available here (pdf). (HT: David Henderson).

UPDATE II: Brad DeLong agrees with me!  So does Matt Yglesias (link at Brad’s URL).  I mean, they don’t agree that Kevin is right, just that he presents the best framework thus far.  I would just like to go on record as having claimed this well before those jokers got there.  (HT: Tom Smith). While you’re visiting Brad, do take a look at the comments for a sense of what happens when people drink the DeLong/Krugman Kool-Aid.  People who dismiss Kevin Murphy as a hack are petulant, ignorant fools not worthy of the slightest consideration (beyond this). At least DeLong himself has better sense. (Although he esimtates alpha at zero! At zero!!!! Hahahahahahah!!!!! Oh, that’s rich.)

Posted in markets | 2 Comments »

Tom Smith Gets Error Costs

Posted by Josh Wright on January 20, 2009

Here he is making the very basic but critical point while responding to Delong’s critique of classic liberalism:

DeLong explains why classical liberalism/libertarianism is wrong. I agree with much of what he says. The problem is, and it’s a very basic mistake and I don’t understand why people keep making it, is that just because private incentives sometimes don’t work to achieve some public good, or that because markets can have big booms and busts for example, that there necessarily exists some state intervention that can do something about it. Nor does it mean it’s “worth a try” if you don’t really know what you are doing. There are diseases. The body’s unbelievably sophisticated system of homeostasis frequently and ultimately always fails to keep us alive. This does not mean every disease has a cure we know about or even could ever know about.

Excellent.

Posted in economics | 1 Comment »

Microsoft Again. Really? Why?

Posted by Josh Wright on January 20, 2009

DG Comp is after Microsoft. Again. Here is the EU’s press release which states the obvious about the basis of the Statement of Objections : the Commission’s decision in the Windows Media Player decision renders illegal virtually any tie by a firm with a “dominant” share under EU law. Therefore, Microsoft’s inclusion of Internet Explorer in Windows (yes, the same one that was the basis of the old U.S. DOJ case) is therefore clearly illegal. Here’s how the Commission puts it:

The SO is based on the legal and economic principles established in the judgment of the Court of First Instance of 17 September 2007 (case T-201/04), in which the Court of First Instance upheld the Commission’s decision of March 2004 (see IP/04/382), finding that Microsoft had abused its dominant position in the PC operating system market by tying Windows Media Player to its Windows PC operating system (see MEMO/07/359).

The evidence gathered during the investigation leads the Commission to believe that the tying of Internet Explorer with Windows, which makes Internet Explorer available on 90% of the world’s PCs, distorts competition on the merits between competing web browsers insofar as it provides Internet Explorer with an artificial distribution advantage which other web browsers are unable to match. The Commission is concerned that through the tying, Microsoft shields Internet Explorer from head to head competition with other browsers which is detrimental to the pace of product innovation and to the quality of products which consumers ultimately obtain. In addition, the Commission is concerned that the ubiquity of Internet Explorer creates artificial incentives for content providers and software developers to design websites or software primarily for Internet Explorer which ultimately risks undermining competition and innovation in the provision of services to consumers.

What’s going on here? Why Microsoft again when its share in the browser market is shrinking and its already paid the piper more than once? Let’s start with some obvious points by way of background. First, there is virtually no way that Microsoft can win if they fight this — in the sense that the liability determination is a foregone conclusion. Despite all the talk of evidence gathering in the press release, in the context of the analysis in the CFI Windows Media Player decision, I suspect that there is not any evidence that an investigation could generate (including evidence that the conduct significantly improves consumer outcomes) that would allow Microsoft to escape liability. Second, press reports indicate that Microsoft’s new strategy with the EU has been, not to put too fine a point on it, to lay down and wait until the beating stops. Third, the ubiquity of tying arrangements by firms with significant market shares (and those without) implies significant prosecutorial discretion for DG Comp. The presence of a significant number of US based firms in technology markets (e.g. Microsoft, Qualcomm, Intel) has led some to argue that there is some protectionist-based geographical discrimination in the selection of targets. Fifth, it seems quite obvious that DG Comp is trying to send some message with its selection of Microsoft as a target, again, in the same case that the US brought years ago. The interesting part is figuring out what the statement is.

Here are a few theories of what that statement might be:

  1. DG Comp is taking the lead as world antitrust enforcer — especially with respect to monopolization
  2. Relatedly, the US Section 2 approach and remedies) are insufficient to police global monopolists and, i.e. so weak that Microsoft was able to violate stricter EC law even after the consent decree
  3. Protectionism and Public choice: Microsoft is a high profile, U.S. company that will pay the fines (beware Intel, Qualcomm, and other large US firms selling globally with significant shares…)

What’s interesting to me is the timing relative to the incoming Obama antitrust regime. By all accounts, or at least my own (see also here), the U.S. is about to start its most active monopolization enforcement regime in decades. With Professor Elhauge at the controls of the DOJ, I suspect the change in course will be significant and visible. So if (1) is the story, one wonders what sort of competition this might engender, if any, between the US and EU enforcers. Or perhaps the story is not competition but convergence in the US towards EU-style monopolization enforcement? I do think there is something to all three stories. And with respect to (3), yes I know there has been Article 82 enforcement against non-US firms, but I’d like to see shares calculated on a dollar fine basis when the EU is through with Qualcomm and Intel. Mostly, given the prior scuffle between Tom Barnett and Neelie Kroes on the CFI Judgment in the Media Player case, its hard to think that (2) is not a significant part of the story. And perhaps rather than competition with the US, motivation for convergence.

Posted in antitrust, economics, international politics, international trade, regulation, technology | 2 Comments »

George W. Bush's stinky parting gift

Posted by Geoffrey Manne on January 20, 2009

Bush has proved himself to be a statist, protectionist ignoramus on many occasions.  But this, one of his final acts in office, is simply appalling:

People in the southern French district of Lozeyron are having a hard time swallowing US President George W. Bush’s parting gift: a tripling to 300 percent in import duty on their world-famous Roquefort cheese.

“Tonnes of produce are going to go up in smoke,” protested one of the seven local producers of the distinctive soft blue cheese. It was a hammer blow to the local region, he said.

The swingeing tariff increase, part of a longstanding trade row between the United States and the European Union, has effectively priced them out of the US market, say producers.

It’s both protectionist idocy as well as an affront to cheese lovers everywhere.  Gordon–are you reading this!?!?!

What an ass.  Good riddance.

Posted in international politics, international trade, markets, regulation | 3 Comments »

Sykuta on Bailing Out the Italians

Posted by Thom Lambert on January 20, 2009

My friend and Missouri colleague, Mike Sykuta, sent me the following insightful comments about the expected Fiat/Chrysler deal:

Today’s Wall Street Journal reports that Fiat is expected to announce a new partnership with Chrysler LLC that will, in the end, result in Fiat taking control of Chrysler. So, what about that bailout of the US auto industry?

This announcement exemplifies the fallacy of protectionist subsidies in a global economy. The Big Three auto makers pled with Washington and made their case to the US taxpayers about the need to protect and support the US auto industry with financial bailouts (never mind that the Big Three represent less than 2/3 of the US auto industry production). But if the anticipated announcement by Fiat and Chrysler is true, what then of Chrysler’s turn at the public teat? Should Chrysler be asked to return forthwith to the Treasury all of the funding it received in the name of protecting the US auto industry? Should US taxpayers continue to bail out an auto manufacturer that is (or soon will be) an Italian company?

In an era of globalized industry, national identity of corporations grows fuzzy at best. Profits that are not reinvested are paid out to shareholders that span the globe, regardless of where a company locates its global headquarters. Revenues that are reinvested are spread across the globe as well. Equity investment among firms further blurs the lines (e.g., Ford’s block ownership in Mazda). For the Big Three to wrap themselves in the US flag and seek out subsidies to protect the US auto industry was disingenuous at best. And as the on-again-off-again US automaker formerly known as Chrysler (then Daimler-Chrysler, now Chrysler LLC, soon-to-be Fiat Chrysler?) demonstrates, car makers themselves care little for national identities unless they come with large bailout checks or other protectionist policies.

Perhaps the most fitting irony of all is that the new owner will be Fiat…sort of like the US government’s investment in the auto industry.

Spot on, Mike.

Posted in business, economics, politics | Comments Off

The heart of the matter

Posted by Geoffrey Manne on January 19, 2009

David Evans gets to the heart of the matter:

The problem that we now face involves fixing many different aspects of our financial system—from incentive systems that encouraged excessive risk taking (do we really believe bankers are innately more greedy than anyone else?), to financial engineers who didn’t think through the consequences of their innovations, to a vast maze of regulations that obviously didn’t work (remember this is probably one the most regulated sectors of the economy in terms of the numbers of regulations and regulators), to political institutions that even now focus on short-run elections rather than long-run growth and prosperity.

The problem is the classic Hayekian one:  Finding anyone or any group with capacity enough to do more good than harm in dealing with complexity this mind boggling. I’ll wager that the group with misaligned political incentives isn’t going to be the right one.  But the regulatory train has already left the station and, although I think the current dynamic (“The benighted government must do something, something huge, to fix the problem and prevent evil, greedy bankers from screwing everything up again”) is pernicious, it just necessitates more scrutiny and care by those who don’t accept its premise as given.  As David says, what we need now is thinking that is “calm, measured and focused on mitigating total disaster.”

Posted in economics, politics, regulation | 2 Comments »

What One Article Should Obama Read Tonight?

Posted by Thom Lambert on January 19, 2009

Imagine what must be going through President-elect Barack Obama’s head today. Tomorrow he begins what must be the most stressful job on the planet (just look at before-and-after pictures of Presidents Clinton and Bush, both of whom appeared to age decades in only eight years). He’s just come off a love-fest featuring the likes of Beyonce, Bono, Bruce Springsteen, and Pete Seeger. He’s spending today performing volunteer activities as part of a national day of service honoring Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. It’s gotta be sensory overload.

I know a bit about how Mr. Obama thinks. He was my constitutional law professor, and I spent many hours watching him reason through tricky questions of doctrine and policy. He’s a smart guy with a well-intentioned heart. While I disagree with him on many matters, I like him very much, and I wish him all the best.

I have no idea how Mr. Obama will spend his last night as President-elect, but knowing his thoughtful, reflective nature, I wouldn’t be suprised if he did a little reading. What would he read? What should he read?

If I could recommend one article for Mr. Obama to read tonight, it would have to be F.A. Hayek’s The Use of Knowledge in Society. I just re-read the article the other day while preparing for my first Business Organizations class, and I was struck by how appropriate it is for the time in which we find ourselves.

Hayek’s article was written in 1945, when socialism was all the rage among the intelligentsia. At that time, the Soviet Union was making remarkable economic progress with its Five-Year Plans, and many of the world’s developed economies were moving toward socialism. Indeed, even the United States was heading in the direction of centralized economic planning. The successful war effort, after all, had been centrally planned; why not incorporate such planning into economic affairs?

Against this tide of scholarly and popular opinion, Hayek insisted that centralized economic planning was destined to fail. The key problem was not motivational (i.e., why create wealth if the planners can take it from you and redistribute it?) but informational — no economic planner or group of planners is privy to the time- and space-specific information needed to ensure that resources are put to their highest and best ends, and even if some central mind could access such information, it would have no way to process it. As Hayek explained:

The peculiar character of the problem of a rational economic order is determined precisely by the fact that the knowledge of the circumstances of which we must make use never exists in concentrated or integrated form but solely as the dispersed bits of incomplete and frequently contradictory knowledge which all the separate individuals possess. The economic problem of society is thus not merely a problem of how to allocate “given” resources — if “given” is taken to mean given to a single mind which deliberately solves the problem set by these “data.” It is rather a problem of how to secure the best use of resources known to any of the members of society, for ends whose relative importance only these individuals know. Or, to put it briefly, it is a problem of the utilization of knowledge which is not given to anyone in its totality.

Who, for example, could say that society needs more widgets (and employees involved in widget-making) and fewer gizmos (and gizmo-makers)? To make that call, you’d need all sorts of information about how millions of people value widgets versus gizmos versus all the other goods and services that could be created using the inputs needed for making widgets and gizmos. No one has access to all this information — most notably, the subjective valuation individuals ascribe to the various goods and services competing for inputs — and even if a central planner could access all relevant information, how on earth could it reconcile conflicting data?

The solution to this problem, Hayek argued, is the price mechanism, which he dubbed a “marvel.” Indeed it is. Market prices incorporate gobs of information and quickly process it to produce a single metric that tells consumers and producers precisely what they need to know: whether they should increase their production/consumption or cut back on it.

Suppose, for example, that you own an oil well and can select the level at which you produce oil. You pick up the morning newspaper and read four headlines: (1) “Unrest Worsens in the Middle East”; (2) “Huge Oil Reserve Discovered Off Coast of New Jersey”; (3) “New Senate Leadership Refuses to Budge on Offshore and ANWR Drilling”; and (4) “GM Announces Plans to Switch Production from SUVs to Hybrids.” What should you do??? Well, headlines (1) and (3) would suggest that oil supplies are going to be tightening, so you should increase production; headlines (2) and (4) suggest just the opposite. What you really need to know is the expected magnitude of each of these effects (and all the others related to oil supply and demand). Fortunately for you, though, you need not spend all day scouring the newswires for oil-related information and estimating the significance of each datum. All you need to do is look at the price of oil, which tells you the best guess of millions of folks about whether or not we need more oil. This is utterly amazing. In Hayek’s words:

The most significant fact about this system is the economy of knowledge with which it operates, or how little the individual participants need to know in order to be able to take the right action. In abbreviated form, by a kind of symbol, only the most essential information is passed on and passed on only to those concerned. … The marvel is that in a case like that of a scarcity of one raw material, without an order being issued, without more than perhaps a handful of people knowing the cause, tens of thousands of people whose identity could not be ascertained by months of investigation, are made to use the material or its products more sparingly; that is, they move in the right direction. … I have deliberately used the word “marvel” to shock the reader out of the complacency with which we often take the working of this mechanism for granted. I am convinced that if it were the result of deliberate human design, and if the people guided by the price changes understood that their decisions have significance far beyond their immediate aim, this mechanism would have been acclaimed as one of the greatest triumphs of the human mind.

In the last few months, our federal government has taken unprecedented steps toward centralized economic planning, primarily by directing the allocation of capital. The powers that be, in their wisdom, have decided that the level of investment capital Ford, GM, and Chrysler are able to attract from voluntary investors is “not enough,” so they’ve decided to use involuntarily conscripted money for the purpose of correcting the private market’s misallocation of resources. Tens of millions of investors, they say, are collectively wrong. The 535 of them (536, including the President) know better how productive resources should be allocated. And those 536 individuals are now poised to spend $550 billion of other people’s money on various projects that they, in their wisdom, know are the highest and best uses for that money. Whew! Thank God for these Platonic Guardians.

I truly believe President-elect Obama is a smart man. My personal experience with him leads me to believe that he is also, fundamentally, a humble man. Of course, it’s hard to stay humble — to recognize the limits of your abilities — when much of the world treats you as though you walk on water. My hope is that Mr. Obama will resist the urge to over-estimate his abilities, will retain an intellectual humility (one not possessed by President George W. Bush, by the way), and will remember that free markets, despite their current bad rap, produce the sort of information no bureacrat or government agency could ever produce. He would do well to re-read Hayek regularly.

Or, if he’s more classically inclined, he might turn to Plato’s Apology. Consider this account of Socrates’ encounter with a man reputed by all to be exceedingly wise:

I thought that he appeared wise to many people and especially to himself, but he was not. I then tried to show him that he thought himself wise, but that he was not. As a result, he came to dislike me, and so did many of the bystanders. So I withdrew and thought to myself: “I am wiser than this man; it is likely that neither of us knows anything worthwhile, but he thinks he knows something when he does not, whereas when I do not know, neither do I think I know; so I am likely to be wiser than he to this small extent, that I do not think I know what I do not know.”

I wonder what articles, essays, or books other TOTM readers would recommend to Mr. Obama on this historic eve?

Posted in business, economics, markets, politics | 3 Comments »

Kiesling on Sunstein, OIRA and Nudging

Posted by Josh Wright on January 16, 2009

A post that everybody should read over at Knowledge Problem in which Lynne Kiesling moves from behavioral economics to the design of fixed price default contracts in electricity markets to a Hayekian critique of the Sunstein-Thaler libertarian paternalist program to the following closing paragraph:

In devising OIRA policy I’d like to hear Sunstein invoke another of his former Chicago colleagues, Ronald Coase, and state that in promoting and facilitating open, transparent markets, the most important role of economic regulatory policy is to reduce the transaction costs that prevent private parties from engaging in mutually-beneficial exchange. That means using OIRA to evaluate the entry barriers and other transaction costs that federal regulation can create. OIRA does cover other areas of regulatory policy where the ideas of transaction costs are not as strictly relevant, but thinking in terms of reciprocal benefit, reducing transaction costs, and the alignment of, for example, environmental and economic incentives through the reduction of transaction costs and better-defined property rights transcends economic regulation.

Its a great post with a ton of food for thought.  Go read it.

Posted in economics, regulation | Comments Off

Should the Supreme Court Grant Cert in Rambus (Revisited, and Cross-Posted at Patently-O)

Posted by Josh Wright on January 16, 2009

[Rutgers Professor Michael Carrier recently posted as a guest at Patently-O arguing in favor of the FTC's position in Rambus and the Supreme Court granting certiorari.  I thought Professor Crouch might be interested in sharing with his readers a different perspective on the merits of the FTC's petition for cert in Rambus sketched out in my December 1, 2008 post on the topic.  He has graciously agreed to share that post at Patently-O and I thought I would re-post here for our readers as well.]

As noted, the FTC has exercised its right under 15 USC 56(a)(3) to petition for a writ of certiorari to review the judgment of the D.C. Circuit in its FTC v. Rambus. The FTC press release is here. The petition is here. The questions presented, as framed by the Commission are:

1. Whether deceptive conduct that significantly contributes to a defendant’s acquisition of monopoly power violates Section 2 of the Sherman Act.

2. Whether deceptive conduct that distorts the competitive process in a market, with the effect of avoiding the imposition of pricing constraints that would otherwise exist because of that process, is anticompetitive under Section 2 of the Sherman Act.

I do not believe the FTC has presented a convincing case for granting cert. Further, I don’t think the Supreme Court should grant cert in Rambus for reasons I’ll discuss in the post. For a more detailed exposition on some of the issues touched upon by this post, see my article with Bruce Kobayashi, Federalism, Substantive Preemption and Limits on Antitrust: An Application to Patent Holdup (forthcoming in the Journal of Competition Law and Economics).

The FTC lists what I count as five separate reasons to grant the petition:

(1) the D.C. Circuit applied an overly restrictive “but-for” causation standard that would require the Commission to show that Rambus’s conduct was anticompetitive (”the court of appeals erred in supposing that a Section 2 tribunal must identify a particular anticompetitive effect in order to find liability”);

(2) the court erred in its application of NYNEX v. Discon, Inc. to Rambus to conclude that the loss of an opportunity for the SSO (JEDEC) to obtain a RAND commitment from Rambus was not an anticompetitive effect under the antitrust laws;

(3) the Supreme Court should grant the petition to clarify “the governing standards of causation in Section 2 cases”;

(4) the D.C. Circuit decision is at odds with the Third Circuit’s Broadcom decision which held that the loss of a RAND commitment due to deception is a proper basis for Section 2 liability; and

(5) the set “inconsistent set of rules” creates a conflict that “threatens confusion regarding the conduct of participants in industry-wide standard setting,” “will discourage participation in standard setting proceedings,” and “ultimately harm consumers.”

I want to examine some of those issues more closely, sketching out reasons why I do not believe that they warrant cert, and also highlight some issues the FTC did not but should have addressed in its brief to make the case more compelling. All of that below the fold.


I. Did the D.C. Circuit Apply an Inappropriately Stringent Causation Standard?

The FTC focuses primarily on what it perceives as the D.C. Circuit’s failure to adopt a more lenient causation standard in favor of what it describes as a “but-for” causation standard. According to the FTC, the D.C. Circuit required the Commission to demonstrate that JEDEC would have selected an alternative non-proprietary standard but-for Rambus’s deceptive acts. Recall that the Commission concluded that the world without Rambus’s conduct would have resulted in one of two possible and mutually exclusive states: (1) JEDEC would have selected alternative non-proprietary technologies, or (2) JEDEC would have still selected Rambus but secured a RAND commitment. So there are really two possible causal pathways here. The first is that Rambus’s deceptive conduct caused the exclusion of rival technologies that would have been selected otherwise. The second is that Rambus’s deceptive conduct did not cause the adoption of Rambus technologies, but did cause JEDEC to miss an opportunity to secure a RAND commitment from Rambus. Significantly, the FTC argues that Rambus’s conduct is actionable under Section 2 under either causal pathway.

Lets start with some propositions on which the FTC and D.C. Circuit appear to agree. First, deception that significantly contributes to the acquisition of market power, i.e. market power that is not lawfully acquired before the deception, can constitute actionable conduct under Section 2. Second, price-increasing deception by a firm already possessing lawfully acquired monopoly power is not actionable under Section 2 pursuant to NYNEX. This begs the questions: was Rambus’s conduct protected by NYNEX or not? What conditions must hold for NYNEX to apply in patent holdup cases?

Let’s start there and focus on the causal pathway involving deception that only results in higher prices because it involves the loss of an opportunity to secure a RAND commitment but not exclusion of rival technologies. Is that deception protected by NYNEX or not? We know that NYNEX applies only when the monopoly power is lawfully acquired and precedes the deception. So the key question appears to be whether Rambus’s market power came before or after the deceptive conduct. To foreshadow where I’m going with this, assume that NYNEX does apply because for example, it can be shown that Rambus had a strong patent and high quality technology. Under this scenario, we know that NYNEX applies. It follows that one of the two causal pathways does not characterize a violation of Section 2 because the price-increasing deception is NYNEX-protected. Here is where the causation issue comes in. If we assume that one causal pathway is NYNEX-protected and perfectly legal — the one where Rambus’s deception results only in the loss of a RAND commitment — what burden does the FTC face in establishing that the deceptive conduct would have resulted in JEDEC selecting an alternative non-proprietary technology? While these are two separate inquiries — the NYNEX question and the causation question — they are inextricably intertwined. Indeed, I believe that resolution of the NYNEX issue resolves the causation question. Nonetheless, we’ll begin by at least framing the causation issue.

The FTC characterizes (brief, p. 16-17) the D.C. Circuit’s causation test as “a strict ‘but for’ causation test for Section 2 cases” that “finds no support in this Court’s prior pronouncements.” Thus, the FTC contends, the “court of appeals erred in supposing that a Section 2 tribunal must identify a particular anticompetitive effect in order to find liability. This follows from the causation principles discussed above: just as the monopoly may have multiple causes, conduct may have variety of anticompetitive effects.” The FTC assumes that both causal pathways characterize anticompetitive conduct under Section 2 — and implicitly that NYNEX does not apply. Under this view, the FTC faults the D.C. Circuit for requiring that it show that one but-for world was likely to the exclusion of the other because both involve illegal conduct under Section 2. Assuming this premise about the but-for world where Rambus would have still been selected but without a RAND commitment, the FTC’s argument makes some sense. The D.C. Circuit erred by requiring the FTC to show conclusively which but-for world would have prevailed because both would have been illegal anyway.

The premise of that causation argument is that both causal paths involve illegal conduct — but that begs the NYNEX question. The D.C. Circuit argues that the causal path involving deception that avoids the RAND term is not necessarily actionable. It depends on whether it is NYNEX protected, e.g. whether the deception came before or after the acquisition of monopoly power. If NYNEX applies, the antitrust analysis of the causal pathway relating Rambus’s conduct to a but-for world of “Rambus with RAND” reveals that the conduct is simply not illegal. Under this view, the D.C. Circuit’s position that the FTC must prove that Rambus engaged in illegal rather than perfectly legal behavior doesn’t seem controversial or incorrect.

One can reconcile the positions as follows. Both the FTC and the D.C. Circuit accept that there must be a causal showing that deception significantly contributes to some anticompetitive effect. The disagreement is over whether both paths involve anticompetitive effects or just one. If the FTC is right, the D.C. Circuit requirement that the FTC prove which one of these but-for worlds would have happened is misguided. If the D.C. Circuit is right, requiring that the FTC prove that Rambus traveled the illegal causal pathway rather than the perfectly legal path is correct because the D.C. Circuit is merely requiring a demonstration than an anticompetitive act occurred. Either way, the point is that the resolution of the causation issue turns on the issue of whether NYNEX renders the “Rambus with RAND” path immune from liability. So who is right? The answer is in Part II below.

Two quick but (I think) interesting notes first. So what is the appropriate causation standard in this setting where one potential but for world leads to a legal result and the other state to an anticompetitive result? Interestingly, while the Hovenkamp et al IP and Antitrust treatise is cited in two places in the FTC brief, it does not cite the language from the 2008 Supplement addressing this issue and cited by the D.C. Circuit:

An antitrust plaintiff must establish that the SSO would not have adopted the standard in question but for the misrepresentation or omission.

Well, no wonder they didn’t cite it.

Second, while we’re discussing causation and the burden facing plaintiffs alleging harm in deception-based Section 2 cases, I’d mention another interesting omission from the FTC brief. The same Areeda & Hovenkamp treatise cited throughout the brief, in the context of cases involving deception and tortious behavior under Section 2, notes that (at ¶ 782a) “[T]he antitrust court must, therefore, insist on a preliminary showing of significant and more than temporary harmful effects on competition (and not merely upon a competitor or customer) before considering a tort as an exclusionary practice. In the absence of such a preliminary showing, the defendant should win summary judgment.” Indeed, in Section 2 claims involving deception and allegedly tortious conduct, courts often require some preliminary showing that the deceptive conduct results in harm to competition. This preliminary showing is often justified on the grounds that there is a presumption that deception and tortious conduct if easily offset and will not have anticompetitive effects. Of course, one can argue that these claims aren’t true in the SSO setting where one might contend deception is much more likely to result in competitive harm and so maybe shouldn’t apply here. There might be something to that. But the cases that the FTC cites for causation are not SSO cases either, e.g. Standard Oil and the traditional requirement of this “extra” and more rigorous preliminary showing in deception based Section 2 to show the link between the conduct and anticompetitive effect are simply not discussed.

Anyway, if you’ve stuck with the post this long then stick around for at least one more section because its where the action is. Recall that I’ve made the case that the causation issue as characterized by the FTC essentially is subsumed by the NYNEX inquiry. In other words, is the failure to secure the RAND commitment an anticompetitive effect in the first instance? The answer under NYNEX is sometimes and the reason the D.C. Circuit decision is correct is because the FTC failed to meet its burden of demonstrating that the NYNEX conditions were not satisfied as a factual matter.

II. Is Using Deception to Avoiding a RAND Commitment Exclusionary Under Section 2?

So, is deception linked to the avoidance of a RAND commitment anticompetitive under Section 2? The short answer is that it depends on when it happens! Clearly, NYNEX immunizes the following fact pattern: (1) lawful acquisition of monopoly power, (2) bad act/ deception/ fraud, (3) evade pricing constraint resulting in consumer harm. NYNEX clearly does not immunize the following pattern: (1) fraud, (2) causes acquisition of market power, (3) exercise in the form of evading RAND commitment. So, lets get back to causation for a second.

If Rambus’s deception precedes its possession of monopoly power, the FTC is right that either causal pathway — (1) exclusion of non-proprietary technology or (2) Rambus with a RAND — involves an anticompetitive effect which is actionable under Section 2. But if Rambus had its monopoly power before it committed its deceptive acts, which presumably resulted in higher prices through violation of RAND commitments, NYNEX takes that causal path off the table for the FTC. Thus, if Rambus had monopoly power before its deceptive acts, the D.C. Circuit is absolutely correct that the FTC ought to bear the burden of showing that an illegal act (and not a NYNEX protected one) took place.

Now, we should be getting closer to resolving some issues here. So, what do we know about whether Rambus lawfully acquired monopoly power before its deceptive act or whether the deception preceded the acquisition?

Consider two possible scenarios. In the first, Rambus’s has a strong patent and a technology that is superior to rivals such that is is likely to be selected for the standard one way or another (or become the de facto standard through competition in the marketplace). In the second, Rambus has a weak patent and a weak technology that is not likely to be selected for inclusion in the standard on the merits. In the first scenario, where would one say that Rambus received its market power from? From the inclusion in the standard or the patent right embodying its superior product? If one assumes the premise that the technology would be adopted as the standard with or without the bad conduct, it becomes clear that the monopoly power was not created by the deception. There, NYNEX applies. Why? The grant of the monopoly power precedes the deception and price-increasing conduct. In the second scenario, where there are superior substitute technologies and the deception allows Rambus to earn monopoly power it would not have otherwise had by virtue of the patent grant, it becomes obvious that NYNEX doesn’t apply. Why? Because the deception caused the acquisition of monopoly power.

It should now be clear how the causation and anticompetitive effect arguments are inextricably interdependent. Specifically, the causation issue turns out whether we characterize the the “Rambus with RAND” but-for causal path as actionable under Section 2 or not. So, what should the FTC have to prove in order to establish that Rambus’s deception amounted to actionable Section 2 conduct? In addition to the standard burden in Section 2 cases, NYNEX demands that the plaintiff in patent holdup cases demonstrate that the monopoly power does not precede the price-increasing deceptive act since such conduct is legal. The plaintiff bears the burden of establishing this point. The critical point here is that the FTC did not adequately address NYNEX. It is clear that the FTC believes that the deception resulted in market power, but it did not prove it.

To be sure, the D.C. Circuit opinion is not a model of clarity on this issue. It could have and should have laid out more explicitly the nature of the factual burden that NYNEX imposes for plaintiffs in patent holdup cases. For example, the D.C. Circuit could have made more clear the nature of the FTCs failure to establish that NYNEX did not apply. However, given the FTC’s failure to establish that one of the two possible causal pathways was illegal, the D.C. Circuit correctly required that the FTC demonstrate that Rambus’s conduct had indeed resulted in the exclusion of non-proprietary technologies. But because the Commission conceded that it did not have sufficient evidence to conclude that Rambus’s deception would result in the exclusion of non-proprietary technologies, the Court could not find liability on that theory.

The critical point is that the causation burden lies with the FTC. The FTC had to demonstrate that the complained of conduct was illegal, i.e., that the deception caused the unlawful acquisition of monopoly power rather than the NYNEX-protected scenario of lawful acquisition by virtue of the patent grant and a superior product prior to deception which results in higher prices.

To be fair, the D.C. Circuit does make many of these points. Indeed, it explicitly and quite clearly faults the FTC for not adequately addressing NYNEX in its briefs. The FTC asserts at various points that the deceptive conduct was exclusionary and resulted in the acquisition of monopoly power, but concedes the basic point that there is insufficient evidence to conclude that the deception significantly contributed to an anticompetitive effect through the specific path of excluding a non-proprietary technology. I don’t think it is correct or fair to characterize the D.C. Circuit’s conclusion in this regard as legal error on causation or on NYNEX. Rather, I think one can reasonably interpret the D.C. Circuit to be saying that it is quite aware of what NYNEX immunizes and doesn’t and that the FTC failed as a factual matter to make a convincing showing that Rambus did not acquire monopoly power prior to the deception quite lawfully.

So far, I don’t see any compelling reason for the Supreme Court to step in here to resolve what amounts to a factual conclusion by the D.C. Circuit that the FTC failed to satisfy its burden to demonstrate that the conduct of the actionable variety rather than protected by NYNEX.

III. Is There Confusion Over the Section 2 Causation Standard?

The FTC also raises the possibility that confusion over the Section 2 causation standard warrants the Supreme Court’s attention. Again, for the reasons discussed in I and II, I don’t believe there is a wholly different standard being applied here with respect to causation. The causation issue folds into the NYNEX issue. The D.C. Circuit appears to have required the FTC to carefully separate out the causal link between deception and effects that are immunized under NYNEX because monopoly power pre-existed the deception or unlawful because the deception created the monopoly power. Such a causal showing does not appear novel by my reading of the Section 2 cases. Nor is it a significant legal dispute over the appropriate causation standard. The causation debate, in my view, boils down to a factual dispute over whether the FTC demonstrated that illegal conduct occurred. This is not the stuff that Supreme Court cases are made of in emerging bodies of law.

IV. Rambus v. Broadcom: Circuit Split, Conflict, or Much Ado About Nothing?

The FTC contends that the D.C. Circuit and Third Circuit are now in conflict because it argues that the Third Circuit has, contrary to the D.C. Circuit, concluded that deception that results in the avoidance of a RAND commitment is an anticompetitive effect under Section 2. The FTC (p. 27) argues that:

The holding of the court of appeals is also at odds with the Third Circuit’s decision in Broadcom Corp v. Qualcomm Inc., 501 F. 3d 297 (3d Cir. 2007). In Broadcom, the Third Circuit, adopting the Commissions’ reasoning in the present case, ruled that allegations that a patent holder deceived an SSO about the terms on which it would license its technologies stated a cause of action under Section 2 … . The Third Circuit ruled that, in the context of SSO deliberations, misrepresentations regarding the cost of implementing a given technology harm competition to become the standard and increase the likelihood that patent rights will confer monopoly power on the patent holder.

The source of the conflict, according to the FTC, is that Third Circuit would not require a showing that the deception actually caused the SSO to include the patent holder’s technology. While the D.C. Circuit notes that Broadcom “may have rested on the allegation that the deceit lured the SSO away from non-proprietary technology,” the FTC criticizes this view for not recognizing what the Third Circuit was really saying:

It is clear, however, that the Third Circuit viewed competitive harm in terms of the impact of Qualcomm’s deceit on the competitive standard setting process, and not — as the court did below — on the specific but for outcome of the SSO’s choice.

I’m not convinced this amounts to a circuit split. Or even an issue that requires the Supreme Court’s attention. First, Broadcom is an appeal from a district court order granting Qualcomm’s motion to dismiss. It holds that Broadcom’s allegations are sufficient to state a claim under Section 2. By the way, these allegations include that the deception induced the SSO to select Qualcomm’s technologies. The Third Circuit describes the complaint as follows:

The Complaint alleged that Qualcomm induced the ETSI and other SDOs to include its proprietary technology in the UMTS standard by falsely agreeing to abide by the SDOs’ policies on IPRs, but then breached those agreements by licensing its technology on non-FRAND terms. The intentional acquisition of monopoly power through deception of an SDO, Broadcom posits, violates antitrust law.

The Third Circuit is working a set of allegations that Qualcomm acquired monopoly power by engaging in a course of deceptive conduct which caused its inclusion in the standard. The Third Circuit decision, at its early procedural stage, does not say anything directly about causation. To the extent that it is premised on the truth of the allegation that the deception induced the selection of Qualcomm’s technologies into the standard, it also say anything about whether the mere avoidance of a RAND commitment is anticompetitive under Section 2. In my view, one has to stretch Broadcom considerably in order to create a split with Rambus with respect to causation or the scope of NYNEX. Perhaps such a split will develop as as the Third Circuit addresses, with some facts in the record, issues of causation and/ or the scope of NYNEX. But the holdings in Rambus and Broadcom are largely a function of the specific factual allegations, procedural stage, and records in each rather than a disagreement about doctrine in need of the Supreme Court’s attention.

V. Confusion About Standard Setting and Interim Harm to Consumers

Finally, the FTC argues that confusion resulting from the Rambus and Broadcom decisions will create some risk that bad conduct and manipulation of SSOs will deter participation and harm consumers. I’m not convinced of this parade of horribles for a few reasons.

First, let us not forget that the debate here is whether to layer antitrust remedies on top of whatever breach of contract, tort, or patent law remedies that are available to aggrieved parties. Breach of contract will be available to SSO members when patent holders violate the by-laws requiring RAND commitments or disclosure. It is true that third party consumers will not have standing to bring such actions. As I’ve pointed out with Kobayashi, it is unclear whether breach of contract damages might be superior in this setting from an optimal deterrence standpoint. We know a Section 2 violation involves trebling plus follow-on private actions in state and federal court. To the extent that the optimal damages turn on the probability of detection, e.g. we justify trebling with the belief that the probability of detection is low enough that it is required for deterrence, it seems like the probability of detecting patent holdup is very high. Its called holdup for a reason. Generally, the holdup is announced to the SSO members and is not covert. So while it is true that third parties may not have standing to bring the contract action, the SSO members certainly have the incentive and it may be the case that expectation damages are closer to optimal deterrence than the alternative. Contract law also has the advantage of providing substantive law designed to distinguish holdup from good faith modification in response to changes in market conditions. This substantive doctrinal advantage becomes much more important when one considers the FTC’s willingness to enforce against deviations from ex ante contractual commitments even in the absence of deception, e.g. N-Data.

Further, as Kobayashi and I have also pointed out in our Federalism and Patent Holdup paper, the patent doctrine of equitable estoppel is relevant here as well:

The doctrine has been applied to cases of patent hold up where the patentee engaged in deception.111 For example, courts have applied equitable estoppel to prevent patentees from enforcing patents in which they misled or were silent regarding patents covering standards adopted by SSOs.112 The remedy in these cases, the inability to enforce the patent, would adequately cure the potential hold up based on deception problem. Moreover, use of this doctrine and remedy would be limited to cases where there is both a misleading statement and reliance on the misleading statement. The contours of any duty to disclose would be defined and evaluated by the disclosures required by the SSO, and not by a generalized duty to disclose based on the patentee’s superior knowledge.

Such an approach would allow SSOs to craft such requirements to maintain incentives for ex?ante disclosure, yet not suppress incentive for improving on the current standard. Further, this approach would not apply to cases such as N?Data, where deception is not involved, and thus would not generate the risk of chilling good faith breaches of FRAND commitments.113 Nor would use of this doctrine implicate extending or modifying current antitrust law beyond it limits. Antitrust law, therefore, would not have to bend to cover situations where proof of actual exclusion or harm to competition is absent. For these reasons, Hovenkamp suggests that use of equitable estoppel or contract law would be more appropriate than antitrust law for addressing such holdup with deception problems.

Thus, while the FTC worries that potential participants in standard setting will not be able to defend themselves against manipulation, let us not forget that these are sophisticated organizations with a toolbox that includes not only contractual responses to prevent holdup but also a host of state and federal legal remedies that do not involve the heavy hammer of antitrust. As Kobayashi and I argue in the linked paper, the Supreme Court (e.g. Credit Suisse, NYNEX, Trinko) has also acknowledged that the presence of alternative remedies and regulatory options (in this case remedies) can render expansion of antitrust liability inappropriate where there is also serious potential for false positives. On normative grounds, we argue that patent holdup is exactly this type of conduct where alternative regulatory institutions such as state and federal law render the marginal benefit of antitrust small and the marginal cost high because of the social costs of false positives in this setting.

Finally, it is not without some irony that the FTC can complain about the confusion in patent holdup doctrine. The FTC’s enforcement action in N-Data extends the patent holdup agenda (see Kobayashi and Wright Federalism and Patent Holdup paper) to cases where there is no deception whatsoever! Indeed, rather than fuss about causation and anticompetitive effects, the FTC wielded its Section 5 enforcement power to address the re-negotiation of a nominal $1,000 commitment to a RAND license several years after the commitment had been made. I suspect that if one was to ask those counseling patent holders deciding whether to participate in the standard setting process, the N-Data enforcement action is much more alarming and confusing then the Rambus decision. Relatedly, readers might enjoy the Global Competition Policy Review symposium on Section 5.

Posted in antitrust, economics, federal trade commission, regulation, technology | Comments Off

More (less) on the costs of stimulus

Posted by Geoffrey Manne on January 15, 2009

This is what I’m talking about in my last post:

We can continue to debate the size and nature of the stimulus, of course, but roughly $800bn seems right and the mix of spending and tax cuts currently proposed also makes sense.

Yeah, roughly $800,000,000,000, give or take a few zeros.  Y’know, back of the envelope.  Seems about right.  Good enough for government work.  Maybe throw in an extra $100,000,000,000 in case I forgot to carry the one.

Can someone point me to the relevant math that supports this conclusion? Here’s Robert Reich.  I looked for a link to his analysis, but it must be broken.

Better is Paul Krugman here. Also here and here.  This has so many holes in it it’s Swiss cheese.  Swiss Cheese Economics, to coin a phrase. My favorite part is this:

But if $100 billion in spending raises GDP by $150 billion, and the marginal tax rate is 1/3, $50 billion of the spending comes back in additional revenue. So bang for the buck — increase in GDP per dollar of added debt — is 3, not 1.5. Since the main concern about stimulus is that it will add to government debt, it’s this bang for the buck measure, rather than the multiplier, that’s relevant. And 3 sounds a lot better than 1.5.

Mirabile Dictu! Government spending begets government revenue!! The obvious conclusion? Spend more and more and more!!! As I read his equations in the linked post, there’s no limit, as long as the spending isn’t being financed by higher taxes.  Leaving aside (although we shouldn’t) behavioral effects, financing is the issue not really addressed, isn’t it? The spending has to be financed somehow, either through future taxes, borrowing or the printing press.  It could be that this bang for the buck is well worth the expense, but how do we know? Does any of this tell us anything about the long-term consequences? I’m prepared to believe that there are benefits to smoothing out the pain, taking our (smaller) lumps later for the benefit of staving off disaster now.  But I’m also prepared to believe that the cost may be worse than the benefit.  How would we know?  Shouldn’t we know before we engage in this kind of unprecedented experiment in government building?

The chart from Romer and Bernstein reproduced in one of Krugman’s posts above is instructive.

romer_stim.png

Krugman doesn’t endorse this, by the way–he wants even more spending and asserts that more spending would correspondingly reduce the pain, and more quickly.  OK, let’s say this is correct, for the sake of argument.  The cost of doing nothing, according to the chart, is the cost, whatever that is, of the space between the two lines.  By 2014 we’re in the same place with or without a “recovery plan.” But is that right? As I noted, 2014 arrives, post stimulus plan, with either massive debt, higher taxes or inflation.  Seems to me any of these would have a negative effect on employment. Wouldn’t a more realistic picture have the two lines crossing at some point (probably before 2014) with a higher unemployment rate with the stimulus than without it for some period of time in the future? Or maybe the cost wouldn’t show up in employment (I’m not really much of a Keynesian). Regardless, I just don’t see the cost side of this calculation.  Meanwhile, I guess the claim is that stimulus now will create growth. Two things: First, building bridges and subsidizing failing industries will not produce growth (employment, perhaps; productive emplyment, not likely), and second, the relevant claim should not be that stimulus will produce growth, but that stimulus will produce more growth than non-stimulus.  Has anyone demonstrated that this is true, let alone that it is true if one includes the cost of paying for the stimulus?

The prospect of pointy heads and politicians planning in excruciating detail the contours of our economy for the foreseeable future using back of the envelope calculations and unsupported assumptions without any realistic assessment of the costs and the costs of error has me . . . a tad bit concerned.

UPDATE:  I was wrong, and I apologize.  It’s not all about building bridges, and that was an unfair claim. Rather, it’s also about weatherizing modest-income homes. I stand corrected. (HT: Tim Kane).

UPDATE II:  I notice that Greg Mankiw also wonders where the accounting is.

Posted in economics, politics | Comments Off

 
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