Truth on the Market

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Archive for April, 2008

"Leegin is a triumph of pragmatism"

Posted by Josh Wright on April 13, 2008

That is what Judge Posner has to say about Leegin in his new book, How Judges Think.   I’m only a few chapters in, but so far, its a fascinating read.  I’ll probably blog some more about parts of the book later.  In particular, I’ve been thinking recently about how the complexity of substantive antitrust analysis affects judicial decision-making.  But for now I wanted to just post an excerpt from the book containing Posner’s description of Leegin (TOTM posts on Leegin are here):

The earlier case [ed: Dr. Miles]  had held that agreements by which a manufacturer places a floor under his distributors’ resale price are a per se violation of the Sherman Act, on the ground that they have the same effect as if the retailers had gotten together and decided to fix a minimum price at which to sell the good.  That was wrong as a matter of economics, because a manufacturer has no interesting in allowing his distributors to cartelize distribution, thus restricting his access to his customers.  If the manufacturer places a floor under his retailers’ prices, it is because the floor serves his interest in competing more effectively against other manufacturers, as by encouraging the retailers to provide presale services to customers for the manufacturer’s good.  So Dr. Miles was rightly overruled.  But the overruling, and its rightness, owed nothing to legalist thinking.  A venerable precedent was overruled because it was bad economics.  Leegin is a triumph of pragmatism.

Posner also describes Bell Atlantic v. Twombly (p. 53-54) as a pragmatic decision, noting that “nothing in the repertoire of legalism could have decided it, especially in favor of the position in the majority opinion” and concluding that “right or wrong, the decision in Bell Atlantic pragmatic rather than legalist.”  If Leegin is a “triumph of pragmatism,” is the continuing vitality of Jefferson Parish’s “per se” prohibition against tying a failure of pragmatism?  If my prediction is correct, whether pragmatic or otherwise, it won’t be too long before Jefferson Parish joins Dr. Miles.

Posted in antitrust, economics | Comments Off

GE "Slashes" Earnings: Free Advice from Nowicki for GE Exec. Jeffrey Immelt!

Posted by Elizabeth Nowicki on April 12, 2008

The Financial Times reported yesterday that an embarrassed GE CEO Jeffrey Immelt had to tell GE shareholders that the 10% growth in earnings for 2008 that he had promised analysts in March was not going to be possible.  GE missed its quarterly forecasts and halved its 2008 forecast to 5% growth in earnings (as opposed to the 10% growth promised).  The Financial Times article mentioned a “sense of shock among the investor community” and noted that one analyst, after Immelt’s downward revision, “compared GE’s promise of long-term improvements to the Chicago Cubs, the US baseball club that hasn’t won a championship in 100 years.”

Upon reading this FT article this morning, I thought “oh, dear God.  Do we remember none of the lessons learned just a few years ago about the perils of over-promising results to analysts?”  Why, exactly, does Immelt feel the need to promise a 5% increase in earnings for 2008 when (a) we are in a credit crunch, (b) GE is likely going to have to do more write-downs this year, (c) the cost of inputs is increasing, if not skyrocketing, (d) inflation is high, and (e) the economy is weak (among other things)?  Why is Immelt promising *growth* in earnings when the reality is that just achieving positive earnings for 2008 is likely to be good thing?  Why is Immelt putting pressure on himself and his officers to produce growth?

Memo to Immelt:  Earnings do not have to grow each year.  In some markets, in some economies, in some industries, in some “downturns,” simply having earnings – any positive earnings – is a good thing.  Matter of fact, sometimes earnings should NOT be growing each year.   Were I a GE investor, I would not want Immelt promising 5% growth for 2008 because I would figure that the only way he can promise to hit that number in such an uncertain market and gloomy economy is by commiting to fudge year-end 2008 numbers if needed.  And, as we learned several years ago, fudging year-end numbers tends to catch up with companies, and, when it does catch up, the valuation fall-out is worse than if the forthright disclosure (e.g. “2008 earnings might be flat”) had been made initially. Am I the only one who remembers back to the not-so-distant past, when unrealistic promises made to analysts by corporate officers led to companies cooking their books at year end to make the numbers?  As I recall, things did not always work out so well in those cases.  Enron, anyone?

Surely it is enough for a company in some years to produce returns that are merely equal to the prior year’s, as opposed to “besting” the prior year’s earnings. Didn’t we learn this lesson several years ago?  Investors are supposed to invest for the long term and diversify.According to the FT, one of the reasons why GE missed its quarterly numbers recently is because GE was unable to close “$900m-worth of real estate asset sales,” which the FT referred to as “a traditional way for GE to boost quarterly returns.”  If I were a GE investor, I would be peeved to read this.  I would rather GE just do the real estate deals when they make the most sense, when the market is most favorable for the deals at issue, regardless of when the gain/loss woulbe be booked.  If that means GE misses its numbers sometiemes due to the lack of a crystal ball regarding the best time to sell the assets, and I take a short-term valuation hit (on paper) as a GE investor, so be it.   It doesn’t create long-term value for shareholders if GE rushes through real-estate transactions just to make the numbers if the timing is not sensible for the transactions and waiting a little bit of time would garner value for shareholders.(The FT reports that “GE slashed its 2008 earnings forecast from $2.42 per share to $2.20-$2.30 – still an increase of as much as 5 per cent from last year.”  Slashed?  Slashed?  Are you KIDDING me?  “Slashed” implies something negative.  Earnings of $2.20-$2.30 per share for a year that is not likely to shape up particularly well  would be good.)

Posted in business, corporate law, musings, truth on the market | 3 Comments »

Searle Center Call for Antitrust Papers

Posted by Josh Wright on April 9, 2008

Northwestern University School of Law’s Searle Center on Law, Regulation and Economic Growth will be holding a conference on Antitrust Economics and Competition Policy on September 26-27th.  From the Call for Papers:

The goal of this Research Symposium is to provide a forum where leading scholars from across the country can gather together with Northwestern’s own distinguished faculty to present and discuss high quality research relevant to antitrust economics and competition policy. Both theoretical and empirical submissions are welcome. Papers in industrial organization or applied microeconomic theory that address issues relevant to antitrust policy are welcome even if they do not directly focus on particular antitrust policy issues or institutions. We hope to involve leading thinkers from the government, non-profit, and private sector, as well as leading academics from economics departments, business schools, law schools and public policy schools. While most of the conference will be devoted to presentation and discussion of original academic research, we also expect to schedule a small number of panels on important current topics or policy issues. If you have questions about the appropriateness of your paper for the symposium, or suggestions for panel subjects, please contact Professor William Rogerson, Research Director, Searle Center Research Project on Competition, Antitrust and Regulation (wrogerson@northwestern.edu)

NOTE: The deadline for abstracts is April 15, 2008!

Posted in announcements, antitrust, economics, regulation, scholarship | Comments Off

Merger Agreements, “Material Adverse Changes,” and Delaware Vice Chancellor Leo Strine’s Obsession With Keira Knightley

Posted by Elizabeth Nowicki on April 3, 2008

I am blogging today from the Tulane Corporate Law Institute, here in New Orleans, at the stunning Westin Hotel. I am set to appear on the Private Equity panel tomorrow, where I will talk about, among other things, the implications of 2007’s string of failed private equity deals.  In preparation for this conference, I drafted a memo on the top few lessons to learn from the 2007 private equity deals. Among the lessons learned, I observed, was that “merger agreements mean what they mean.” What I was referring to was the string of deals that got into trouble in 2007 because the buyers tried to evade the deals, arguing that there was a material adverse change in the condition of the target, and the sellers tried to press for specific performance, in the shadow of a merger agreement that was clear on neither the definition of material adverse change nor when specific performance was justified.

Deal lawyers have long kept the not-so-secret secret that we really don’t know what most material adverse change provisions mean, in the abstract. If pressed, we might admit that, indeed, they are often painfully ambiguous. We cannot necessarily opine, again in the abstract, whether they would cover a given set of facts. And we are ok with that because we like the idea that, in court, we can argue whatever way will help our case (that there was or was not a material adverse change).

Setting aside the “we,” and speaking no longer as a deal lawyer but as a corporate governance aficionado, I have to say that I have long thought that target boards of directors should not be ok with signing off on material agreements – merger or otherwise – that are not clear (at least on material points). Or boards should not be content to sign off until they understand why the ambiguity is acceptable. The reality is that I suspect that little has changed since Smith v. Van Gorkom, where the Trans Union board never even *saw* the merger agreement, much less read it and debated “material adverse change” provisions. And that troubles me.

Today’s panels here at the Deals Conference confirmed my concerns. Three people made interesting comments: First, a high-profile investment banker made clear that the bankers just don’t *know* what events fall within “material adverse change,” such that the deal could fall apart. Meaning, the investment bankers don’t really know how the merger agreement language reads, as a legal matter. (This is not surprising in light of the URI case opinion making clear that UBS (bankers for URI) had no idea they were basically selling an option on URI (as opposed to signing a deal to buy URI).) My view is that, since bankers are the ones STRUCTURING financial aspects of the deal and opining on the totality of the deal, including pricing of the risk that the deal will not consummate, they need to be very clear on what can implode the deal and how the risks of non-consummation due to “material adverse change” play out. Second, a high-profile deal lawyer on the same panel both (a) basically confirmed that we are still in a deal world where the “material adverse change’ language is admittedly looser than it could be and (b) confirmed that deals would still get signed even if the target board insisted on tighter materiality language. Third, Vice Chancellor Strine opined that …. “[i]f I were going to obsess about something, it would be Keira Knightley.” I seem to have been distracted by that comment, because, though Strine later *did* say something about “material adverse change,” I failed to write it down. I do believe Strine said something to the effect that boards should understand, prior to signing, what a material adverse change that would get the buyer out of the deal would include.

So where do we end up? We end up right where we have always been. It is not ideal to have merger agreements with ambiguous “material adverse change” language. But everyone – drafting lawyers, investment bankers, boards- seems to let it slip by. It is only a matter of time before a target board gets successfully sued in a fiduciary duty lawsuit for failing to act “in good faith” by signing a *sale* document without reading it and realizing it is ambiguous on an important topic. Then it is only a matter of time before the board spins around and sues both (a) their lawyers and (b) their bankers for failing to explain the deal-impacting aspects of the deal terms struck (such as “material adverse change,” specific performance conditions, and reverse termination fee outs). Mark my words. You heard it here first.

Posted in markets | 2 Comments »

 
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