Truth on the Market

Academic commentary on law, business, economics and more

Archive for October, 2007

Donations for San Diego Fires

Posted by Josh Wright on October 23, 2007

I’ve been watching the news coverage of the San Diego fires this evening hoping for any bit of good news. It hasn’t come yet (a map of the San Diego fires, evacuation centers, and some photos is available here). I was born and raised in San Diego and many family members still live there. At least one family member and several friends have been evacuated. It appears that the total number of San Diegans displaced by the fires thus far has exceeded 500,000 (and does not include the other fires across southern California). My thoughts and prayers go out to all of those affected by the fires.

For those who are interested, donations can be made to the San Diego Red Cross here.

UPDATE: Professor Bainbridge adds links to Catholic Charities in Los Angeles and San Diego.

Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off

Lysine Cartel Video Available from DOJ

Posted by Josh Wright on October 23, 2007

Todd Zywicki recommends Kurt Eichenwald’s The Informant, the fascinating story of the prosecution of the Archer Daniels Midland lysine cartel in the 1990s, and asks whether the famous DOJ videotapes and transcripts of cartel meetings are available online.  I’m not sure if they are online, but the DOJ does make the tapes and transcripts available free of charge (or at least used to) by mailing or faxing a request to the following address:

Freedom of Information Act Unit — Antitrust Division
Liberty Place Building, Suite 200
Department of Justice
Washington DC, 20530-0001
Phone: 202 514 – 2692
Fax: 202 616 – 4529

I’ve used these tapes as a teaching tool most years that I’ve taught antitrust (though unfortunately I had to leave them out last year) to motivate discussions of factors that work for and against the successful operation of a cartel, the incentive to deviate from cartel agreements, and the cartel’s need for means to detect and punish deviators.  The tape is fascinating to watch and a great tool for teaching about price fixing, how its accomplished, criminal antitrust enforcement, leniency programs, etc.  I believe the ABA has made various translations of the tapes and transcripts available as well, though I cant say I know exactly where to find them.

Posted in antitrust, economics, law school, markets | 2 Comments »

The Aftermath of a Type I Error: The Case of Conwood Co. v. United States Tobacco

Posted by Josh Wright on October 17, 2007

It looks like California consumers, unlike their counterparts in several other states, will be getting cash instead of coupons in their settlement against U.S. Tobacco in one of the many follow-on actions to Conwood Co. v. United States Tobacco.  The settlement looks to be in the range of $96 million with qualifying customers taking home anywhere between $195 and $585 depending on how many consumers are willing to sign a sworn statement that they purchased more than 30 cans of certain brands in the relevant time period.

In the original case, a federal jury in Kentucky deliberated for about four hours before finding that UST’s actions in distributing moist snuff tobacco violated Section 2 of the Sherman Act and awarded Conwood treble damages in the amount of $1.05 billion.  The decision was later affirmed by the Sixth Circuit.  It is not surprising that Conwood prevailed in the private litigation once the case got to the jury.  After all, UST’s conduct included some pretty distasteful stuff that was surely tortious, e.g. destroying rival’s product and display racks, misleading retailers, etc. 

For this reason, Conwood is most often talked about my antitrust commentators as a classic example of a “cheap exclusion case,” much like the textbook example of blowing up the rival’s factory.  But there are some problems with this characterization, not the least of which is that Section 2 still requires that plaintiffs demonstrate actual competitive harm and engage in some analysis on that issue.  Also, commentators frequently (following the Sixth Circuit’s example) ignore the fact that Conwood prevailed under a Section 2 theory that included not just the tortious conduct, but also presumptively pro-competitive conduct such as offering loyalty programs and category management services to retailers.  The Sixth Circuit never disaggregated lawful from unlawful conduct for the purposes of liability or damages analysis.

Unfortunately, some language in the Sixth Circuit decision also broadly condemns category management (when a manufacturer provides valuable input for shelf space allocation decisions) without any analysis.  This part of the decision, which ignores the potentially pro-competitive virtues of both category management and exclusive contracts is an excellent of example of the following tendency noted by Coase (1972):

“…if an economist finds something ­ a business practice of one sort or other–that he does not understand, he looks for a monopoly explanation. And as in this field we are very ignorant, the number of ununderstandable practices tends to be very large, and the reliance on a monopoly explanation, frequent.”

Coase, of course, was talking about economists.  But I think the warning is equally applicable to antitrust lawyers and judges and especially appropriate in the retail context where these mistakes are made frequently.  While it is true that UST’s tortious conduct is indefensible, a monopoly explanation is unlikely for those acts.  Further, the real analytical error is that the antitrust law requires a showing that this conduct harms consumers even when the conduct is surely not “competition on the merits.”  The bigger mistake, in my view, is not about the tortious conduct.  It’s about the category management contracts — an arrangement that is incredibly pervasive in modern retail distribution.  The Sixth attaches a causal connection between the UST’s position as category manager and the tortious acts without any explanation, justification, or even attempt to evaluate the conduct within the well established frameworks for analyzing such arrangements in antitrust.  This does not bode well for category managers with significant market shares trying to figure out whether their category management arrangements might create Section 2 liability nightmares.

Further, the damages calculations at trial in the original Conwood case have been heavily criticized by many prominent scholars.  See, e.g. D.H. Kaye’s analysis here and here, a scathing amicus brief in support of a writ for certiorari from several leading economists attacking the damages estimates, and a lengthy critical discussion in Herbert Hovenkamp’s Antitrust Enterprise which makes Conwood the poster child of sorts of the case against private litigation.

My own critique of the Conwood decision which covers these and some other points, as well as a pro-competitive economic theory of category management, can be found in this draft article (currently under review at a journal). 

Posted in antitrust, economics, legal scholarship, scholarship | 2 Comments »

DOJ Website on Competition in the Real Estate Industry

Posted by Josh Wright on October 17, 2007

The DOJ Antitrust Division has a new website which provides consumers very useful information concerning the importance of competition in the real estate market, anticompetitive state laws which limit this competition, and documenting various anticompetitive practices.  Here’s commentary from Todd Zywicki and Luke Froeb.

Posted in announcements, antitrust, markets | Comments Off

TOTM Authors Make SSRN Top 10 Lists

Posted by Josh Wright on October 15, 2007

I am pleased to announce that that Thom’s excellent and provocative paper on Weyerhaeuser and the Search for Antitrust’s Holy Grail has made the Top 10 list (at #10) for Antitrust & Regulated Industries and Antitrust Law and Policy (#7). Congrats Thom! On top of that, I am doubly pleased that my own Behavioral Law and Economics, Paternalism, and Consumers Contracts: An Empirical Perspective has made a few SSRN Top 10 lists (#5 for Consumer Law, #7 in the Journal of Contract and Commercial Law, and #10 in the Management Research Network).  Sorry in advance if I missed others!

Posted in announcements, contracts, economics, law and economics, markets, musings, SSRN | 2 Comments »

Nobel Prize to Hurwicz, Maskin and Myerson

Posted by Josh Wright on October 15, 2007

for having laid the foundations of mechanism design theory.” Here’s a blurb from the Nobel website on mechanism design:

Mechanism design theory, initiated by Leonid Hurwicz and further developed by Eric Maskin and Roger Myerson, has greatly enhanced our understanding of the properties of optimal allocation mechanisms in such situations, accounting for individuals’ incentives and private information. The theory allows us to distinguish situations in which markets work well from those in which they do not. It has helped economists identify efficient trading mechanisms, regulation schemes and voting procedures. Today, mechanism design theory plays a central role in many areas of economics and parts of political science.

Congratulations to the winners!  Here’s Tyler and Alex at Marginal Revolution on mechanism design generally and this year’s Nobel winners. Alex’s post also provides a nice introduction to mechanism design. I’m relatively pleased by this Prize.  Mechanism design is highly formal, but the basic concepts (rational participation, incentive compatability,  truth-telling, etc.) are accessible at an informal level, and it does have potentially very useful real world applications.   The winners are brilliant theoreticians and certainly deserving of this recognition.  All of that said, I do admit that I’m still holding out hope that the Committee will soon recognize the contributions of to property rights, transactions cost economics, and contracting of folks like Alchian, Demsetz, Klein, and Williamson or perhaps finally recognize Gordon Tullock.

Posted in announcements, economics, markets | Comments Off

Al Gore = Arthur Laffer?

Posted by Josh Wright on October 14, 2007

Greg Mankiw explains.

Posted in economics, environment, musings | 10 Comments »

Peking University IEPR Antitrust Conference

Posted by Josh Wright on October 14, 2007

Today marked the completion of the J. Mirrlees Institute of Economic Policy Research (IEPR) Conference on China’s Competition Policy and Anti-Monopoly Law at Peking University in Beijing. I was thrilled to be invited to participate in the conference. A special thanks to Hongbin Cai of Peking University for the invitation, and for organizing an all around wonderful event.

The conference itself was quite an experience. I did learn quite a bit about the AML and I think now have a greater understanding of some of the challenges China will face with its implementation after listening to those who have been grappling with these problems on the ground level and in the context of the Chinese transition to a market economy. The conference was also offered a mixture of perspectives including those of economists and academics (from the US, EU, Hong Kong, and China), Chinese political officials, antitrust lawyers, and law and economics luminaries Harold Demsetz (the same one that should win the Nobel Prize Tuesday …) and Henry Manne. While there were far too many perspectives offered on the various issues and challenges facing AML enforcement to usefully summarize in a blog post, I was pleased to see widespread agreement with respect to the view that economics should play a central role in the AML’s implementation.

Most of all, I’m happy to report that TOTM was well represented at the IEPR by Geoff and I. Antitrust oriented bloggers had an even stronger presence as Luke Froeb of Management R&D (and Vanderbilt) was also a participant. Here’s a photo of Luke, Geoff and I after dinner at the Summer Palace:

Beijing (Luke, Geoff, Josh)

Posted in antitrust, economics, federal trade commission, law and economics, mergers & acquisitions, regulation, scholarship, truth on the market | Comments Off

Are Chimps Smarter than Humans?

Posted by Thom Lambert on October 11, 2007

I’ve previously hypothesized that the persistence of legal rules that lead to less overall wealth but seemingly more equitable distributions (rules such as the insider trading ban and Regulation FD) may stem from the fact that individuals are “hard-wired” to favor fairness, even if they must sacrifice some wealth to achieve it. That seems to be one of the lessons of the Ultimatum Game, in which offerees routinely sacrifice wealth in order to protest proposed allocations they deem to be unfair. (I describe the Ultimatum Game in the post linked above.)

I also observed that there are reasons to believe there’s an evolutionary basis for this taste for fairness (and willingness to pay for it). Primatologists have observed that monkeys trained to exchange a pebble for a cucumber slice (a very good deal for the monkeys!) will quit making such beneficial exchanges if they observe other monkeys receiving more favorable treatment, such as a yummy grape for the pebble. The put-upon monkeys are apparently willing to suffer a wealth loss in order to protest what they perceive to be an inequitable outcome. Thus, I argued, there appears to be some evolutionary basis for the results of the Ultimatum Game.

So what am I to make of new research showing that chimpanzees playing the Ultimatum Game will not reject “unfair” offers? The chimps appear to take the seemingly rational view that it’s better to have some wealth, even if others get an unfairly large portion, than to have no wealth.

Wonder what a society of chimps would make of John Edwards’ candidacy?

(HT: Mizzou Law alumnus, Evan Fitts)

Posted in corporate law, economics, musings, securities regulation | 10 Comments »

Event Studies, Fischel, Bradley, and John Armstrong

Posted by Elizabeth Nowicki on October 10, 2007

I have long held reservations about corporate governance research that hinges on event studies.  (An event study is “an analysis of whether there was a statistically significant reaction in financial markets to past occurrences of a given type of event that is hypothesized to affect public firms’ market values.” An example of the sort of study that makes me a bit nervous is the study of derivative lawsuits done by Professors Fischel and Bradley in their 1986 paper titled “The Role of Liability Rules and the Derivative Suit in Corporate Law.”)  I have been leery of sharing my views regarding event studies, however, because it seems that most folks in my area of the academy have no similar reservations.  Discretion being the better part of valor, I would prefer not to be viewed as standing alone off in left field.  After spending some time a few afternoons ago chatting about my concerns with my mathematician friend John Armstrong, however, I am emboldened to share my thoughts here.

In a nutshell, I worry that event studies as traditionally conducted in the context of corporate governance undervalue the long term implications of and cumulative effects of various events.  I worry that, relying on event studies, we might be quick to undervalue activity that does not immediately generate a market reaction but that, in the bigger picture, lays the foundation for achieving a meaningful goal.Â

For purposes of discussion here, let us use an event study designed as follows:  A researcher wants to know what impact, if any, an institutional shareholder announcing its intention to withhold its affirmative vote on a slate of directors at an annual meeting has on the market.  In the typical event study, the researcher would look at the stock price of the stock of the company at issue on the day before the institutional shareholder’s announcement and the researcher would look at the stock price the day after.  If the stock price moved only minimally (in a way that was not “abnormal” for the market), the researcher would conclude that the institutional shareholder’s announcement did not matter to the market.  If the researcher were being thorough, I suppose the researcher might also look at how many shareholders at the next annual meeting, a week hence, actually withheld their votes.  If the number withholding was not abnormal, I imagine the researcher would believe his view of the irrelevance of the institutional investor’s pronouncement confirmed.

But what troubles me is that this ignores the long view.  Stay with me:  Assume that, 11 months after the above-mentioned institutional investor airs its concerns, an article appears in the WSJ reporting that the much-loved, long-serving CEO of the company at issue was arrested for drunk driving.  Assume that, the day after the drunk driving announcement, the stock price of the company at issue dropped 20%.  A researcher with an event study affinity might say that the drunk driving announcement moved the market.  But what of the notion that the announcement PLUS the recall of the institutional investor’s concerns actually cumulatively moved the market?  How do event studies account for time lag?  How do event studies account for the accumulation of information?  Surely just the announcement that the CEO was arrested for drunk driving should not, in and of itself, move the market.  But I can easily imagine situations where that might just be the straw that broke the camel’s back, so to speak.  Yet your typical event study would not account for that, would it?  Moreover, what if, at the annual meeting several weeks later, an abnormal number of investors withheld their votes for the nominated panel of directors?  Would we attribute that to the drunk driving instance?  I cannot imagine we would.  Yet would our scholarly memories be long enough to remember to attribute it to the institutional investor’s disavow of faith a year prior?

To be clear:  I much admire the scholars in our field who are aggressively using all research tools, event studies and otherwise.  I share my unease with event studies for what it is worth, which might be nothing.  (My hope, however, is that a useful exchange of ideas will occur here.)

Posted in Uncategorized | 7 Comments »

 
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